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A Strange Kind of Strength Jon and Ryan return with a sharp look at commodity behavior that’s throwing off even seasoned traders. Despite plenty of bearish news — big acreage, looming harvest, and only modest export support — the grain markets are holding firm. Is this stubborn strength a sign of underlying inflation? Or is it the calm before the storm? “One of the strongest signals you can see in a market is when it ignores the news.” The pattern we’re seeing mirrors last ye

Many producers are already hedging, but those relying only on cash sales are facing a tougher road. This fall, wide carries, storage...

With six straight dry weeks followed by a four‑day rain stretch, timing has all but delivered a curveball. The fields are about to open, and everything from yield estimates to hedging strategy is hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, markets are wrestling with inflation, China deals, and USDA figures that many are quietly ignoring. Whatever happens next, producers need a clear plan, not just hope. Market Dilemma: Hedge Now or Watch It Unfold? You’ve probably heard the saying: “S

The Grain Storage Dilemma Bins are filling fast, but the real question is whether they should. Storing grain feels safe, yet in 2025, the...

The Market Dilemma: Producers are asking: should you sit tight or start hedging now? Grain markets are resting, options and spreads whispering rather than shouting. But with harvest just getting underway and a major USDA report due at week’s end, waiting too long might leave you exposed. Corn & Soybeans: Corn has put in a big crop, but storage is heavy and bids weak. The spread between corn and wheat remains compressed, limiting upside until demand catches up. For soybeans, s

The Hidden Risks in “Quiet” Markets When the board looks calm, it’s easy to assume you can take your foot off the gas. But history shows...

The Market Dilemma: To Re‑own or Not This Fall With storage dwindling and bear market undercurrents everywhere, producers face tough calls: should you re‑enter the market or let it ride in the cash market? Corn is quietly gaining ground off last week’s lows, while soybeans struggle amid tepid demand and bearish sentiment. Let’s break down the strategic path forward. Corn: Quiet Strength Meets Export Opportunity Corn futures have ticked up roughly 20 cents recently, reflecting

Corn: Firm, But Fragile The last two years, corn spiked in September before dropping back. Could this year follow the same script? Jon...

No Catalyst, No Rally: Grains on Ice Until China Moves The grain markets are stuck in neutral. Volatility is low, prices are lethargic, and there’s no obvious driver to get things moving. It’s not a comforting place to be—but it’s a familiar one. For producers, the challenge now isn’t predicting the next move. It’s staying strategically positioned while we wait for something— anything —to shift. Let’s unpack where things stand and what options remain on the table. The Market

Ideas, Basis & Risk — What This Market Demands in 2025 This isn’t the year for autopilot. Markets are heavy with carry, basis is weak,...

This week, Jon and Ryan sat down just before the market open with a fast-paced look at three huge developments reshaping the ag markets: Cattle pushing new highs Corn and beans moving on exports—but with warning signs The crop tour confirming what many feared: we’ve got a monster crop coming in There’s optimism in the air, but trouble may not be far behind. Cattle’s Relentless Rally: Opportunity or Overheated?

Report Shock, Soybean Setup, and Corn's New Reality This week’s market wasn’t just eventful—it was historic. In the latest Hedge Heads Insider , Jon and Ryan unpack what may be one of the most disruptive reports in decades. A surprise acreage switch sent shockwaves through the corn and soybean markets, while volatility in cattle and hints of weakness in the stock market round out a week that feels like a turning point. The Big Picture: What Changed? A massive shift in acreage

Soybeans: Did a Trump Tweet Just Open the Door? Markets got a surprise boost when a middle-of-the-night Trump tweet mentioned China...

The Market Dilemma: Time to Exit Shorts on Corn? After weeks of downside pressure, corn just got a jolt: new crop exports hit a record-setting 3.1 million metric tons—1.5 million above what would already be considered a strong number. That kind of demand doesn’t just show up without consequence. While it’s too soon to call a bottom, this is the kind of data that tends to stop the bleeding—and could begin to shift the tone.

The Bottom Might Be In Soon. Are You Ready to Move? Everyone’s arguing about corn yield guesses, USDA intentions, and whether this year’s...

Market Breakdown: Grains Can’t Find the Floor It’s hard to sugarcoat it—grain markets are ugly. Despite record exports and shrinking global stockpiles, corn and soybeans keep sliding. Why? It’s all about the cash market . The funds aren’t just speculating—they’re reacting to what they see in the real-world grain trade. And right now, there’s no sign from the cash side that they’re wrong. Basis remains weak, storage is full, and cash bids haven’t turned. Until that changes, do

Cattle’s on a Tear—But Don’t Blink Futures are finally playing catch-up with the cash market, and open interest is rising. That’s a rare...

What Are You Really Waiting For? This week’s market is the kind that can freeze even experienced producers. Nothing looks great. Nothing looks terrible. And everywhere you turn, the advice is contradictory. Jon and Ryan are back this week to break down the confusion and offer a clear-eyed look at what might come next—and how to prepare for it. The Big Picture: Decision Time Seasonal trends are sending conflicting signals , with short-term dips in some patterns and hopeful cli

Hedge Heads: Outsmarting a Tough Corn Market USDA reports scream “tight corn supplies” at 1.76 billion bushels, but futures are stuck in...

Corn Market Pops — Is It Just Holiday Fireworks? This week’s sudden rally in corn has traders buzzing. With prices surging and headlines swirling, we’re left with one big question: Is this a real move… or just another short-covering head fake? Ryan and Jon break down this week's surprise price action and lay out the factors driving what might be the most interesting (and confusing) week in corn so far this summer. The Big Picture: What Happened This Week Corn prices jumped on