All Posts

Soybeans: Did a Trump Tweet Just Open the Door? Markets got a surprise boost when a middle-of-the-night Trump tweet mentioned China...

The Market Dilemma: Time to Exit Shorts on Corn? After weeks of downside pressure, corn just got a jolt: new crop exports hit a record-setting 3.1 million metric tons—1.5 million above what would already be considered a strong number. That kind of demand doesn’t just show up without consequence. While it’s too soon to call a bottom, this is the kind of data that tends to stop the bleeding—and could begin to shift the tone.

The Bottom Might Be In Soon. Are You Ready to Move? Everyone’s arguing about corn yield guesses, USDA intentions, and whether this year’s...

Market Breakdown: Grains Can’t Find the Floor It’s hard to sugarcoat it—grain markets are ugly. Despite record exports and shrinking global stockpiles, corn and soybeans keep sliding. Why? It’s all about the cash market . The funds aren’t just speculating—they’re reacting to what they see in the real-world grain trade. And right now, there’s no sign from the cash side that they’re wrong. Basis remains weak, storage is full, and cash bids haven’t turned. Until that changes, do

Cattle’s on a Tear—But Don’t Blink Futures are finally playing catch-up with the cash market, and open interest is rising. That’s a rare...

What Are You Really Waiting For? This week’s market is the kind that can freeze even experienced producers. Nothing looks great. Nothing looks terrible. And everywhere you turn, the advice is contradictory. Jon and Ryan are back this week to break down the confusion and offer a clear-eyed look at what might come next—and how to prepare for it. The Big Picture: Decision Time Seasonal trends are sending conflicting signals , with short-term dips in some patterns and hopeful cli

Hedge Heads: Outsmarting a Tough Corn Market USDA reports scream “tight corn supplies” at 1.76 billion bushels, but futures are stuck in...

Corn Market Pops — Is It Just Holiday Fireworks? This week’s sudden rally in corn has traders buzzing. With prices surging and headlines swirling, we’re left with one big question: Is this a real move… or just another short-covering head fake? Ryan and Jon break down this week's surprise price action and lay out the factors driving what might be the most interesting (and confusing) week in corn so far this summer. The Big Picture: What Happened This Week Corn prices jumped on

Why This Market Might Be Calm—But Not Safe The June acreage report came in with barely a ripple. Big corn acres, fewer soybeans, no...

When Silence Says Everything Phones aren't ringing. The market’s sliding. And if you're not already short, you're probably stuck wondering what move to make next. This week, we’re looking at a market that’s doing everything wrong —seasonally, structurally, and sentiment-wise. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities. You just have to know where to look. Corn: Grinding Lower with No Fight Left? Seasonally, this is supposed to be the top. But 2025 hasn’t followed the us

Shorts in Control, Volatility Ignored—Time to Trade Smarter, Not Louder Markets shrugged at war. Shrugged at bin damage. Shrugged at...

When Markets Move, So Should You After a long stretch of silence, things just got noisy. Corn’s trying to push through key resistance....

Soybeans: The 65-Cent Swing That Hit Hard Out East, major grain buyers just flipped from 20 over July to 20 under November. That’s a 65-cent hit in one move—and it crushed expectations for a tightening cash market. This wasn’t noise. It was a signal. And it told us something serious: buyers think they’ve got enough beans to ride through summer. Bear spreads confirm it. July is slipping while November firms up. The bullish case for beans just cracked.

Perfect Weather, Ugly Market This is the kind of June producers dream about—ideal weather, healthy crops, and smooth planting. So why are...

When July corn trades under December in early June, something’s off. This week’s Insider unpacks the signal in the spreads, the value in cheap options, and how to think through your next move without guessing the weather. Corn Spreads Are Breaking the Script Typically, July trades above December—especially if supply is tight. But this year? That’s flipped. It’s a sign the market sees more corn out there than official numbers admit. Jon and Ryan explain why this kind of invers

When Markets Break the Rules Let’s get this out of the way: This isn’t normal. Corn is trading at harvest lows… in May. Export...

The Numbers Support a Rally—So Why Isn’t It Happening? Market Breakdown: A Bullish Setup with Bearish Behavior On paper, this market...

It’s not chaos—it’s opportunity. This week’s Hedge Heads Insider drops in the middle of a rare window: strong planting progress, low option premiums, and a market that suddenly stopped going down. If you’ve been waiting to put on protection or scale up positions, you may be running out of time. Planting progress? No real issues this time around. Most of the West moved at record pace, and even with a few breakdowns or delays here and there, overall progress is right on track.

A Market That Makes No Sense—And What To Do About It We’re in the thick of spring, and the numbers are flying: • 78% of corn and 66% of...

Market Reversal: Why This Week Feels Different Over the weekend, a surprise trade agreement between the U.S. and China set a bullish...