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The Market Dilemma: Hold Old Crop or Start Moving It? This week’s Insider conversation centered on one theme: structure matters more than headlines. Crude oil gave us a recent reminder. Even while prices were sliding earlier this winter, the spreads stayed inverted. That’s not normal behavior in a true oversupply environment. It was a warning that the downside pressure wasn’t as solid as it looked. Sure enough, crude found its footing. Now look at corn. Corn spreads have been

The Quiet Before Something Bigger? Mid-February usually comes with a certain energy. There’s talk of acreage battles.There’s weather chatter.There’s usually at least one market that feels exciting. This year feels different. Prices aren’t collapsing. They’re not surging either. They’re just… there. And that might make this one of the more important decision windows we’ve seen in years. When markets are obviously good or obviously bad, decisions are easier. It’s the “not terri

Markets were reminded this week how quickly sentiment can shift when headlines hit. One announcement was enough to send funds scrambling out of equities and into soybeans, lighting a fire under a market that had been sitting quietly just days earlier. Volatility returned in a hurry, spreads reacted aggressively, and producers were once again forced to answer the same uncomfortable question: do you act now, or do you wait and risk missing it? The Market Dilemma At the heart of

Why February May Be the Most Important Month for Corn & Soybeans Market Check: Tight Spreads, Slower Movement, Tough Decisions Grain prices aren’t moving much, but your marketing plan probably should be. This week on Hedge Heads, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth unpack why the February window  is so critical for both old and new crop decisions. Corn spreads are sending clear signals: grain isn’t moving, demand is steady, and time is running out to capture seasonal strength. W

January Ends, But the Real Heat Is Just Starting As the calendar turns, markets aren’t waiting around. This week’s Insider captures a surprising shift across commodities: metals ripping higher, crude finally catching a bid, and grains sitting in the shadow of it all. Jon and Ryan unpack the signals behind the moves—and what it means for the bin-busting crop still waiting to be sold. The Market Dilemma: Stick to the Plan—or Shift Gears? Cold weather, full bins, and a tired gra

The Hedging Crossroads It’s that time of year, when producers either commit to a plan or let the market make decisions for them. In this week’s Hedge Heads episode, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down three core paths for corn hedging and why the window for smart planning is narrower than it looks. Right now, demand is strong. Basis is firm. But stocks are burdensome, and talk of 95 to 97 million corn acres is growing louder. There’s just not much room for error. If y

The Market Dilemma: Hedge the Quiet or Trade the Noise? Energy markets are heating up while grains remain stubbornly quiet. For producers, this creates a familiar challenge: where should you focus your attention when some markets are surging and others are stalled? Corn Corn continues to grind sideways with little momentum in either direction. Each rally seems to stall out and each dip finds support. Jon’s approach is simple but active: trade the range. He’s sending text aler

The latest episode of Hedge Heads features special guest Brett Oelke , founder of Innova Agra and a farm management coach. Brett joins Jon Prischmann to discuss why most grain marketing plans fail before they even start: a lack of foundational farm management and multi-generational planning. The Foundation: Beyond the Grain Marketing Plan Many producers jump straight to marketing without doing the necessary background work. Brett emphasizes that a successful hedge program re

The latest USDA report, released on January 12, 2026 , has sent shockwaves through the commodity markets. What many expected to be a routine winter update turned into a "devastating" reality for producers, resetting the outlook for 2025 and 2026 hedges. The Numbers: A Historical Deviation The report blindsided the industry with record-breaking data that defied nearly all pre-report expectations. Corn Production & Yield : USDA confirmed a record 17.021 billion bushel corn cro

Report Strategy Around major reports, options are best viewed as tools for managing event risk rather than long-term positions. Shorter-term options can make sense if the sole purpose is to cover the report itself. If the market reacts favorably, you have choices. If it does not, the risk is defined and limited. The key is being willing to exit if the option no longer serves its original purpose.

New Year, New Outlook: Navigating the January 12th Yield Report Welcome to the first edition of 2026. While the markets have been relatively boring lately, we are approaching a major catalyst: the January 12th USDA final yield report . Because previous reporting cycles were disrupted by government shutdowns, this specific report is expected to finally fill in the missing "puzzle pieces" and may hold a surprise or two regarding the U.S. crop. Corn Market: Watching the "Quiet"

When volatility dries up, most people do the same two things: they either force a trade out of boredom, or they freeze and miss the window when it finally opens. This week’s Hedge Heads episode was a good reminder of a third option: treat patience like a position.  With Theta Farmer on the show, the conversation stayed grounded in how options and hedges behave in real life—especially in the kind of slow, frustrating markets where “doing something” often costs more than it hel

The Market Dilemma: Sit Tight or Strike Soon? Markets are quiet. Too quiet. And while that can feel like a relief after the chaos of harvest or fall volatility, it’s also dangerous. When there’s no clear trend, producers are left asking: is this the bottom, or just a lull before another leg lower? Jon’s take is clear: this is the time to plan—not panic. Even if there’s no rally in sight, the best opportunities tend to come when everyone else is asleep at the wheel. Corn: A Ca

This year’s grain decisions feel heavier than usual—and that’s not just in your head. Margins are tighter. Inputs are still expensive. Cash flow matters more. And the market isn’t offering easy answers. In this kind of environment, instinct and tradition can get costly. The only thing that really cuts through the noise is running the numbers. That’s what we’re doing this week. This newsletter breaks down how to think about grain decisions at year-end—not from a prediction sta

The Market Dilemma: Hedge the Rally or Ride the Risk? Cattle markets are moving again—and fast. Cash bids are aggressive, feeder prices are climbing, and optimism is creeping back in. But the foundation? Still shaky. Global beef imports from Argentina, Australia, and Brazil are gaining traction. Two ports look ready to open, and a recent regulatory approval suggests border policy could shift fast. That would flood the market with imported product—and potentially undercut dome

The Setup: A Market Nobody Wants… Except the Indicators Corn has become the trade everyone’s tired of. Too much supply on paper. Too many mixed headlines. Too much noise from both bulls and bears. But every so often, the market that looks the most boring turns out to be the one quietly tightening underneath. This week’s analysis centers on a question we didn’t think we’d ask again: What does it mean when the perma bear starts sounding bullish? It’s not about emotion. It’s abo

The One Question Every Producer Asks Markets don’t ring a bell when the top is in. They get noisy, emotional, and full of conflicting opinions. Headlines swing back and forth. Basis can look bullish one day and neutral the next. Social media is more misleading than ever. But one signal consistently cuts through the noise: the spreads . The same spreads that quietly flagged last year’s corn top weeks before the break are now one of the best tools producers have for timing sale

Reading a Market That Refuses to Pick a Direction Corn isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t trending either. One day feels supportive, the next feels heavy. Export demand is strong, soybeans are being pulled around by politics, and cattle just took the kind of break that tests producer confidence. In markets like this, decisions carry more weight than usual. Basis rolls are expensive, early pricing caps opportunity, and waiting too long brings its own risk. This week’s Hedge Heads

We’re seeing a rally in grains that looks tempting on the surface — but when you dig in, the foundation is shaky. For producers, the question isn’t simply “Should I sell?” but rather: “How should I hedge if I’m not ready to sell yet?”

The Market Looks Better, but the Decisions Haven’t Gotten Easier Corn is rallying, but uncertainty is still everywhere. USDA numbers are being debated, fund money is pouring into commodities, and global politics are pulling soybeans in every direction. Producers are trying to navigate a market that feels supported but unstable. This week’s Hedge Heads conversation returned to a core principle that becomes even more important in markets like this: keep the upside open when the