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When volatility dries up, most people do the same two things: they either force a trade out of boredom, or they freeze and miss the window when it finally opens. This week’s Hedge Heads episode was a good reminder of a third option: treat patience like a position.  With Theta Farmer on the show, the conversation stayed grounded in how options and hedges behave in real life—especially in the kind of slow, frustrating markets where “doing something” often costs more than it hel

The Market Dilemma: Sit Tight or Strike Soon? Markets are quiet. Too quiet. And while that can feel like a relief after the chaos of harvest or fall volatility, it’s also dangerous. When there’s no clear trend, producers are left asking: is this the bottom, or just a lull before another leg lower? Jon’s take is clear: this is the time to plan—not panic. Even if there’s no rally in sight, the best opportunities tend to come when everyone else is asleep at the wheel. Corn: A Ca

This year’s grain decisions feel heavier than usual—and that’s not just in your head. Margins are tighter. Inputs are still expensive. Cash flow matters more. And the market isn’t offering easy answers. In this kind of environment, instinct and tradition can get costly. The only thing that really cuts through the noise is running the numbers. That’s what we’re doing this week. This newsletter breaks down how to think about grain decisions at year-end—not from a prediction sta

The Market Dilemma: Hedge the Rally or Ride the Risk? Cattle markets are moving again—and fast. Cash bids are aggressive, feeder prices are climbing, and optimism is creeping back in. But the foundation? Still shaky. Global beef imports from Argentina, Australia, and Brazil are gaining traction. Two ports look ready to open, and a recent regulatory approval suggests border policy could shift fast. That would flood the market with imported product—and potentially undercut dome

The Setup: A Market Nobody Wants… Except the Indicators Corn has become the trade everyone’s tired of. Too much supply on paper. Too many mixed headlines. Too much noise from both bulls and bears. But every so often, the market that looks the most boring turns out to be the one quietly tightening underneath. This week’s analysis centers on a question we didn’t think we’d ask again: What does it mean when the perma bear starts sounding bullish? It’s not about emotion. It’s abo

The One Question Every Producer Asks Markets don’t ring a bell when the top is in. They get noisy, emotional, and full of conflicting opinions. Headlines swing back and forth. Basis can look bullish one day and neutral the next. Social media is more misleading than ever. But one signal consistently cuts through the noise: the spreads . The same spreads that quietly flagged last year’s corn top weeks before the break are now one of the best tools producers have for timing sale

Reading a Market That Refuses to Pick a Direction Corn isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t trending either. One day feels supportive, the next feels heavy. Export demand is strong, soybeans are being pulled around by politics, and cattle just took the kind of break that tests producer confidence. In markets like this, decisions carry more weight than usual. Basis rolls are expensive, early pricing caps opportunity, and waiting too long brings its own risk. This week’s Hedge Heads

We’re seeing a rally in grains that looks tempting on the surface — but when you dig in, the foundation is shaky. For producers, the question isn’t simply “Should I sell?” but rather: “How should I hedge if I’m not ready to sell yet?”

The Market Looks Better, but the Decisions Haven’t Gotten Easier Corn is rallying, but uncertainty is still everywhere. USDA numbers are being debated, fund money is pouring into commodities, and global politics are pulling soybeans in every direction. Producers are trying to navigate a market that feels supported but unstable. This week’s Hedge Heads conversation returned to a core principle that becomes even more important in markets like this: keep the upside open when the

The Smart Way to Protect Your Floor and Keep the Ceiling Open The Setup: Every year, the same pattern plays out—harvest ends, prices slip, and most operations start their planning too late. But this year, that hesitation could cost even more. Corn’s sitting in that frustrating middle zone: not low enough to buy, not high enough to sell. So what’s the move? This week, we’re breaking down the logic behind real-world hedges —simple, limited-risk setups that protect your floor an

The Market Dilemma After months of sluggish moves and quiet boards, volatility is back—and not gently. Soybeans saw a 44-cent overnight swing, and while the headlines hint at hope (China trade talk), the fine print reveals a lot more nuance. So the question is: Are you prepared to act in volatile markets—or are you hoping volatility will act for you? Jon put it best: “It’s not ‘store it and ignore it.’ It’s ‘store it—and be ready to sell if it looks good.’” Soybeans: Opportun

Volatility is Back — and So Are the Opportunities The Calm Before the Surge For months, the grain markets were quiet—too quiet. Volatility drained out of the system, option prices stayed cheap, and producers were left waiting for something—anything—to move. Then one weekend changed everything. A surprise trade deal announcement lit a fire under soybeans, sending prices higher and phones ringing across farm country. After a season of stillness, the market suddenly feels alive

Harvest is rolling fast, and with it comes a sense of pause in the markets. But don’t confuse quiet for calm. The soybean complex is quietly building toward a potential pivot, with the December straddle suggesting a 31-cent move in either direction. That’s a clear signal the market is bracing for impact. If China shows up at the end-of-month meeting and buys, even modestly, it could lift prices across grains. If they don’t, or if the meeting falls apart, expect another wave o

Breaking the Marketing Cycle Every fall, the same question surfaces: Should I store, sell, or re-own? It’s a simple question with big consequences — and this year, it’s harder than ever to answer. Soybeans have been stubborn, corn remains expensive relative to wheat, and many producers feel trapped in the same cycle of waiting too long and selling too low. But as Jon Prischman put it in this week’s Hedge Heads  episode, “What you want is to be the guy who’s not asking this an

The Market Dilemma: Bin Full, Market UnclearWith corn still coming in and space at a premium, producers are facing one of the most important decisions of the season: what to do with the extra bushels. Should you sell it now, store it, or reown it on paper? This isn’t just a marketing choice—it’s a risk management strategy that could shape your bottom line. "Important decisions are being made right now—and there’s no one-size-fits-all answer." – Jon Some are looking to move gr

Low Volatility, Big Decisions: What Producers Should Be Thinking About Now The Quiet Market Paradox You can feel it across the board: volatility has drained out of the markets. Corn options are pricing in barely any movement, soybeans are flat, and even the tweets that used to shake things up barely move the needle. Cheap options and slow-moving markets can lure producers into complacency. Options and Storage: Playing Defense with an Edge With implied volatility this low, opt

As harvest rolls on, the biggest question many producers face isn’t “What price can I get?” — it’s “What’s the smartest way to carry risk from here?” Market Dilemma: Store, Sell, or Strategize? We’re in that time of year when yield debates dominate, social media fills with claims of “market ruiners,” and producers wrestle with whether to hold grain or to use options. Jon and Ryan open this episode by tackling just that head‑on. The challenge: how do you move forward when the

When Carry, Basis, and Options All Point to Defense Grain markets haven’t gone anywhere—but that doesn’t mean nothing’s happening.Corn’s...

A Strange Kind of Strength Jon and Ryan return with a sharp look at commodity behavior that’s throwing off even seasoned traders. Despite plenty of bearish news — big acreage, looming harvest, and only modest export support — the grain markets are holding firm. Is this stubborn strength a sign of underlying inflation? Or is it the calm before the storm? “One of the strongest signals you can see in a market is when it ignores the news.” The pattern we’re seeing mirrors last ye

Many producers are already hedging, but those relying only on cash sales are facing a tougher road. This fall, wide carries, storage...