The Quiet Spring Market No One Is Talking About

The Quiet Before Something Bigger?

Mid-February usually comes with a certain energy.

There’s talk of acreage battles.There’s weather chatter.There’s usually at least one market that feels exciting.

This year feels different.

Prices aren’t collapsing. They’re not surging either. They’re just… there. And that might make this one of the more important decision windows we’ve seen in years.

When markets are obviously good or obviously bad, decisions are easier. It’s the “not terrible, not good” environment that creates hesitation — and hesitation can be expensive.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening.

Soybeans: Rally or Warning Sign?

Soybeans have pushed higher recently, and that’s created opportunity.

Old crop movement has picked up. Some new crop sales are being penciled in. On the surface, that sounds constructive.

But look underneath:

• Front-end carries are widening.

• Export pace has been soft.

• The structure doesn’t scream tight supply.

When spreads widen during a rally, it often suggests the move is being driven more by fund activity than strong physical demand. That doesn’t mean prices can’t go higher. Beans are notorious for spring surprises. But it does mean you should be cautious about assuming this rally is built on solid footing.

Actionable Takeaway:

If this rally works for your farm’s margin structure, consider moving a small percentage of new crop rather than swinging big. Keep flexibility. You can always re-own upside later if conditions justify it.

Avoid all-or-nothing thinking. This is a year for increments.

Corn: Vulnerable, But Not Hopeless

Corn hasn’t given producers much to work with.

We’re sitting in a range that feels like it could slip before summer. At the same time, history tells us that even two weeks of hot, dry weather can generate a marketing opportunity.

That’s the dilemma.

If you lock in too aggressively and we get a crop scare, you’ll wish you had bushels left.If you wait and we plant big acres with good weather, you may look back and realize this was the best pricing window.

There isn’t a clean signal right now. That’s why so many producers are sitting on their hands.

Actionable Takeaway:

Run the numbers on small percentages. Even 10 percent movement at profitable or breakeven levels can reduce emotional pressure later. If you’re profitable, you can’t talk yourself out of that. Just leave room for flexibility.

And if you choose to wait, make that a deliberate decision — not just avoidance.

Why Expensive Puts Are Hard to Swallow

On paper, buying puts feels like the clean solution. Protect the downside, keep the upside open.

In reality, option premiums right now are large relative to the margin available in many operations. When you start giving up significant premium, you may erase the small profit you had.

That doesn’t make puts wrong. It just makes them expensive insurance in a year where margins are already thin.

Actionable Takeaway:

If you use options, think in layers. Smaller positions. Defined windows. Clear profit targets. The goal isn’t hitting a home run — it’s managing risk without draining working capital.

Cattle: The Other Side of the Cycle

While grains feel stuck, cattle continue to trade at historically strong levels.

But even here, there are warning signs:

• Packers are operating with tight margins.

• The feeder-to-fat spread doesn’t pencil well in traditional setups.

• Retail features suggest resistance at higher beef prices.

Supply-led rallies can last — until they don’t. And when they turn, they tend to turn quickly.

Actionable Takeaway:

If you’re exposed to cattle, focus on floor protection rather than trying to squeeze the last dollar. Protect the downside and let the upside remain open. Avoid adding unnecessary risk in a euphoric market.

The Bigger Theme: Decision Fatigue

The most noticeable thing right now isn’t volatility.

It’s quiet.

Bankers aren’t panicking. Producers aren’t excited. There’s very little buzz about acres, weather, or big positioning shifts.

That kind of silence can create complacency.

And complacency is dangerous in commodity markets.

We are entering a critical window. Spring planting intentions, early weather patterns, and fund positioning will all matter. Whether you decide to act now or wait, the key is having a plan.

Because if prices erode from here, the decision will be made for you.

Final Thoughts: Small Moves, Clear Thinking

This isn’t a year for bold, emotional bets.

It’s a year for:

• Small percentages

• Flexible structures

• Clear break-even awareness

• Defined weather windows

• Intentional decisions

You don’t need perfect answers. You need a framework.

If you’d like to hear our full discussion on beans, corn, cattle, and how we’re thinking about this crossroads moment, listen to the latest Hedge Heads episode here:

🎧 Listen now → Podcast

Spring is coming — whether the market feels ready or not.