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The Market Dilemma After months of sluggish moves and quiet boards, volatility is back—and not gently. Soybeans saw a 44-cent overnight swing, and while the headlines hint at hope (China trade talk), the fine print reveals a lot more nuance. So the question is: Are you prepared to act in volatile markets—or are you hoping volatility will act for you? Jon put it best: “It’s not ‘store it and ignore it.’ It’s ‘store it—and be ready to sell if it looks good.’” Soybeans: Opportun

Volatility is Back — and So Are the Opportunities The Calm Before the Surge For months, the grain markets were quiet—too quiet. Volatility drained out of the system, option prices stayed cheap, and producers were left waiting for something—anything—to move. Then one weekend changed everything. A surprise trade deal announcement lit a fire under soybeans, sending prices higher and phones ringing across farm country. After a season of stillness, the market suddenly feels alive

Harvest is rolling fast, and with it comes a sense of pause in the markets. But don’t confuse quiet for calm. The soybean complex is quietly building toward a potential pivot, with the December straddle suggesting a 31-cent move in either direction. That’s a clear signal the market is bracing for impact. If China shows up at the end-of-month meeting and buys, even modestly, it could lift prices across grains. If they don’t, or if the meeting falls apart, expect another wave o

Breaking the Marketing Cycle Every fall, the same question surfaces: Should I store, sell, or re-own? It’s a simple question with big consequences — and this year, it’s harder than ever to answer. Soybeans have been stubborn, corn remains expensive relative to wheat, and many producers feel trapped in the same cycle of waiting too long and selling too low. But as Jon Prischman put it in this week’s Hedge Heads  episode, “What you want is to be the guy who’s not asking this an

The Market Dilemma: Bin Full, Market UnclearWith corn still coming in and space at a premium, producers are facing one of the most important decisions of the season: what to do with the extra bushels. Should you sell it now, store it, or reown it on paper? This isn’t just a marketing choice—it’s a risk management strategy that could shape your bottom line. "Important decisions are being made right now—and there’s no one-size-fits-all answer." – Jon Some are looking to move gr

Low Volatility, Big Decisions: What Producers Should Be Thinking About Now The Quiet Market Paradox You can feel it across the board: volatility has drained out of the markets. Corn options are pricing in barely any movement, soybeans are flat, and even the tweets that used to shake things up barely move the needle. Cheap options and slow-moving markets can lure producers into complacency. Options and Storage: Playing Defense with an Edge With implied volatility this low, opt

As harvest rolls on, the biggest question many producers face isn’t “What price can I get?” — it’s “What’s the smartest way to carry risk from here?” Market Dilemma: Store, Sell, or Strategize? We’re in that time of year when yield debates dominate, social media fills with claims of “market ruiners,” and producers wrestle with whether to hold grain or to use options. Jon and Ryan open this episode by tackling just that head‑on. The challenge: how do you move forward when the

When Carry, Basis, and Options All Point to Defense Grain markets haven’t gone anywhere—but that doesn’t mean nothing’s happening.Corn’s...

A Strange Kind of Strength Jon and Ryan return with a sharp look at commodity behavior that’s throwing off even seasoned traders. Despite plenty of bearish news — big acreage, looming harvest, and only modest export support — the grain markets are holding firm. Is this stubborn strength a sign of underlying inflation? Or is it the calm before the storm? “One of the strongest signals you can see in a market is when it ignores the news.” The pattern we’re seeing mirrors last ye

Many producers are already hedging, but those relying only on cash sales are facing a tougher road. This fall, wide carries, storage...

With six straight dry weeks followed by a four‑day rain stretch, timing has all but delivered a curveball. The fields are about to open, and everything from yield estimates to hedging strategy is hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, markets are wrestling with inflation, China deals, and USDA figures that many are quietly ignoring. Whatever happens next, producers need a clear plan, not just hope. Market Dilemma: Hedge Now or Watch It Unfold? You’ve probably heard the saying: “S

The Grain Storage Dilemma Bins are filling fast, but the real question is whether they should. Storing grain feels safe, yet in 2025, the...

The Market Dilemma: Producers are asking: should you sit tight or start hedging now? Grain markets are resting, options and spreads whispering rather than shouting. But with harvest just getting underway and a major USDA report due at week’s end, waiting too long might leave you exposed. Corn & Soybeans: Corn has put in a big crop, but storage is heavy and bids weak. The spread between corn and wheat remains compressed, limiting upside until demand catches up. For soybeans, s

The Hidden Risks in “Quiet” Markets When the board looks calm, it’s easy to assume you can take your foot off the gas. But history shows...

The Market Dilemma: To Re‑own or Not This Fall With storage dwindling and bear market undercurrents everywhere, producers face tough calls: should you re‑enter the market or let it ride in the cash market? Corn is quietly gaining ground off last week’s lows, while soybeans struggle amid tepid demand and bearish sentiment. Let’s break down the strategic path forward. Corn: Quiet Strength Meets Export Opportunity Corn futures have ticked up roughly 20 cents recently, reflecting

Corn: Firm, But Fragile The last two years, corn spiked in September before dropping back. Could this year follow the same script? Jon...

No Catalyst, No Rally: Grains on Ice Until China Moves The grain markets are stuck in neutral. Volatility is low, prices are lethargic, and there’s no obvious driver to get things moving. It’s not a comforting place to be—but it’s a familiar one. For producers, the challenge now isn’t predicting the next move. It’s staying strategically positioned while we wait for something— anything —to shift. Let’s unpack where things stand and what options remain on the table. The Market

Ideas, Basis & Risk — What This Market Demands in 2025 This isn’t the year for autopilot. Markets are heavy with carry, basis is weak,...

This week, Jon and Ryan sat down just before the market open with a fast-paced look at three huge developments reshaping the ag markets: Cattle pushing new highs Corn and beans moving on exports—but with warning signs The crop tour confirming what many feared: we’ve got a monster crop coming in There’s optimism in the air, but trouble may not be far behind. Cattle’s Relentless Rally: Opportunity or Overheated?

Report Shock, Soybean Setup, and Corn's New Reality This week’s market wasn’t just eventful—it was historic. In the latest Hedge Heads Insider , Jon and Ryan unpack what may be one of the most disruptive reports in decades. A surprise acreage switch sent shockwaves through the corn and soybean markets, while volatility in cattle and hints of weakness in the stock market round out a week that feels like a turning point. The Big Picture: What Changed? A massive shift in acreage