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For the last couple of years markets struggled to sustain rallies. Upside was limited. When opportunities showed up, producers had good reason to take them seriously because another chance might not come along anytime soon. Now the market has changed. Volatility is back. Corn has rallied sharply. Soybeans have strengthened up quite a bit. Wheat is also in that camp. After spending much of the summer questioning why the market seemed unwilling to acknowledge what was happening

A Different Market Requires a Different Strategy For the last couple of years, grain marketing has largely been an exercise in protecting against supply. Big crops kept coming. Weather cooperated. Production was able to keep pace with demand. When rallies showed up, there was good reason to use them. That environment trained producers to be defensive. This year is starting to look different. Demand remains strong, while confidence in another exceptional crop is beginning to f

The Biggest Risk May Be Marketing This Year Like the Last Two Markets have a way of teaching lessons. The problem is that sometimes those lessons stick around longer than they should. The last couple of years rewarded producers who were aggressive about moving grain. Big crops, comfortable supplies, weak basis in many areas, and rallies that struggled to hold created a fairly clear message: waiting for something better could get expensive. It would be easy to carry that lesso

Every August, the market shifts its attention from weather to yield estimates. Analysts, hedge funds, and private firms all begin releasing projections, and it's easy to get caught up in the debate. This year is no different, but the conditions that produced this crop have been anything but normal. Unlike last season, much of the western Corn Belt experienced significant heat stress during July. That makes comparing this year's crop to last year's far more complicated than si

Why This Year Demands a Different Marketing Mindset For the past two growing seasons, producers largely faced the same challenge: large crops, fleeting rallies, and limited opportunities to improve marketing decisions. This year is shaping up differently. Weather has created a wide range of crop conditions across the country. Some areas continue to struggle while others remain in good shape. Add in uncertainty surrounding Black Sea exports, global geopolitical tensions, and u

When the Market Gets Interesting For the last couple of years, grain marketing has felt unusually straightforward. That doesn't mean it was profitable. It doesn't mean it was enjoyable. But the path in front of producers was often obvious. Large crops, comfortable supply expectations, and limited upside meant many marketing conversations revolved around protecting against lower prices. The market wasn't offering many surprises. That's beginning to change. We're seeing more un

The grain markets have entered a period where weather forecasts, geopolitical headlines, and energy prices are all competing for traders' attention. Individually, each factor can move markets. Together, they create an environment where opportunities can appear quickly—and disappear just as fast.

Markets don't need a clear direction to create difficult marketing decisions. Sometimes uncertainty itself becomes the biggest obstacle. This week, producers are balancing a weather market, escalating geopolitical tensions, changing demand signals, and conflicting forecasts—all while trying to decide whether to reward rallies or wait for something better. The challenge isn't simply where markets go next. It's avoiding decisions driven by emotion instead of a disciplined marke

The hardest part of grain marketing isn't predicting the weather. It's knowing what you'll do before the market moves. For most of the past two years, grain producers have been conditioned to expect the same outcome. Small rallies faded. Weather scares have been non-existent. Every bounce seemed like another opportunity that disappeared just as quickly as it arrived. Eventually, many producers stopped believing rallies would last at all. This week felt different. Not simply b

A Holiday Pause Before the Weather Market Takes Over The calendar says it's the Fourth of July, but the grain markets aren't taking much of a vacation. After finally stringing together a few higher sessions, producers are asking the same question: Is this bounce enough to reward sales, or is it worth waiting for weather to create another opportunity? The reality is that weather now takes center stage. Forecasts have already shifted multiple times—from hot and dry, to cooler a

Why this year's biggest USDA report may have changed the momentum for the rest of the growing season. For weeks, grain markets have been trading as though every headline would be another reason to sell. That made Monday's USDA report one of the most important days of the summer. Not because anyone expected bullish numbers. In fact, most people were simply hoping the report wouldn't make things worse. That's exactly what happened. The June 30 acreage and quarterly stocks repor

Markets Are on Edge as Producers Face One of the Biggest Reports of the Year The market is heading into one of the most anticipated USDA reports of the season, and uncertainty is running high. The June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports have a long history of producing sharp market reactions when expectations miss reality. This year feels no different. The biggest question isn't simply how many acres were planted. It's whether the USDA confirms what the market already expects—o

Acreage, Weather, and Volatility Are Setting the Stage for a Critical Market Decision The grain markets have already experienced a sharp and unusual decline heading into summer, leaving producers with a difficult question: Has the damage already been done, or is there another leg lower ahead? As we approach the June 30 USDA Acreage Report, the market faces one of its most important moments of the growing season. The report will provide a clearer picture of planted corn and so

Historic selling pressure has pushed grain prices lower, but producers now face a difficult question: Is this a bottoming process, or is more downside still ahead? The Market Dilemma: When Outside Markets Matter More Than Weather Most years, June grain marketing revolves around weather forecasts and crop conditions. This year is different.

Fund Liquidation Changes the Story, But Has It Changed the Outlook? One of the most frustrating market environments for producers is when prices move sharply before the underlying fundamentals have had a chance to develop. That's exactly where agriculture finds itself today. Over the past several weeks, grain markets have experienced a rapid decline driven largely by fund liquidation. The speed of the move has caught many participants off guard, especially considering the cal

Grain Markets Enter the Most Volatile Stretch of the Summer After two years of near-perfect growing conditions across much of the Corn Belt, the market is finally starting to pay attention to weather again. Hotter temperatures are building across western areas, excessive moisture remains an issue in parts of the east, and forecasts are suddenly carrying more uncertainty than producers have seen in recent summers. At the same time, energy markets remain elevated and geopolitic

The Risk Right Now Isn’t Just Price — It’s Assuming This Year Is Normal For the last two years, the corn market followed a fairly predictable script. Planting went smoothly. Weather stayed cooperative. Rain kept showing up in the forecast. And by late spring, the market had enough confidence in a massive crop that rallies faded quickly. That pattern trained producers to expect the same outcome: Sell strength early Protect against a summer collapse Don’t overthink it But this

Why This Market Feels More Dangerous Than Most Producers Realize For the last several years, grain marketing has largely been about managing oversupply, weak demand signals, and short-lived rallies. This market feels different. Not because the grain fundamentals are suddenly bullish — but because outside forces are starting to overwhelm the normal rules. Oil prices are climbing Interest rates are rising again Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate Money is flowing back in

The latest round of market headlines delivered what traders had been waiting for: clarity on China demand. The problem is the market did not like the answer. Soybeans sold off sharply following the latest meeting, dragging corn and wheat lower as disappointment replaced speculation. But while the immediate reaction looked bearish, the bigger story is far from settled.

The markets are forcing producers into difficult decisions right now. Between massive swings in crude oil, uncertain geopolitical headlines, and heavy fund involvement in grains, this has become one of the toughest marketing environments producers have faced in years. As Jon put it during the episode, “We’re dealing with a market that could go up substantially, but we’re also dealing with a market that has a ton of grain longs, which is always a ticking time bomb.”