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The Market Dilemma After months of sluggish moves and quiet boards, volatility is back—and not gently. Soybeans saw a 44-cent overnight swing, and while the headlines hint at hope (China trade talk), the fine print reveals a lot more nuance. So the question is: Are you prepared to act in volatile markets—or are you hoping volatility will act for you? Jon put it best: “It’s not ‘store it and ignore it.’ It’s ‘store it—and be ready to sell if it looks good.’” Soybeans: Opportun

Harvest is rolling fast, and with it comes a sense of pause in the markets. But don’t confuse quiet for calm. The soybean complex is quietly building toward a potential pivot, with the December straddle suggesting a 31-cent move in either direction. That’s a clear signal the market is bracing for impact. If China shows up at the end-of-month meeting and buys, even modestly, it could lift prices across grains. If they don’t, or if the meeting falls apart, expect another wave o

The Market Dilemma: Bin Full, Market UnclearWith corn still coming in and space at a premium, producers are facing one of the most important decisions of the season: what to do with the extra bushels. Should you sell it now, store it, or reown it on paper? This isn’t just a marketing choice—it’s a risk management strategy that could shape your bottom line. "Important decisions are being made right now—and there’s no one-size-fits-all answer." – Jon Some are looking to move gr

As harvest rolls on, the biggest question many producers face isn’t “What price can I get?” — it’s “What’s the smartest way to carry risk from here?” Market Dilemma: Store, Sell, or Strategize? We’re in that time of year when yield debates dominate, social media fills with claims of “market ruiners,” and producers wrestle with whether to hold grain or to use options. Jon and Ryan open this episode by tackling just that head‑on. The challenge: how do you move forward when the

With six straight dry weeks followed by a four‑day rain stretch, timing has all but delivered a curveball. The fields are about to open, and everything from yield estimates to hedging strategy is hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, markets are wrestling with inflation, China deals, and USDA figures that many are quietly ignoring. Whatever happens next, producers need a clear plan, not just hope. Market Dilemma: Hedge Now or Watch It Unfold? You’ve probably heard the saying: “S

The Market Dilemma: Producers are asking: should you sit tight or start hedging now? Grain markets are resting, options and spreads whispering rather than shouting. But with harvest just getting underway and a major USDA report due at week’s end, waiting too long might leave you exposed. Corn & Soybeans: Corn has put in a big crop, but storage is heavy and bids weak. The spread between corn and wheat remains compressed, limiting upside until demand catches up. For soybeans, s

The Market Dilemma: To Re‑own or Not This Fall With storage dwindling and bear market undercurrents everywhere, producers face tough calls: should you re‑enter the market or let it ride in the cash market? Corn is quietly gaining ground off last week’s lows, while soybeans struggle amid tepid demand and bearish sentiment. Let’s break down the strategic path forward. Corn: Quiet Strength Meets Export Opportunity Corn futures have ticked up roughly 20 cents recently, reflecting

No Catalyst, No Rally: Grains on Ice Until China Moves The grain markets are stuck in neutral. Volatility is low, prices are lethargic, and there’s no obvious driver to get things moving. It’s not a comforting place to be—but it’s a familiar one. For producers, the challenge now isn’t predicting the next move. It’s staying strategically positioned while we wait for something— anything —to shift. Let’s unpack where things stand and what options remain on the table. The Market

This week, Jon and Ryan sat down just before the market open with a fast-paced look at three huge developments reshaping the ag markets: Cattle pushing new highs Corn and beans moving on exports—but with warning signs The crop tour confirming what many feared: we’ve got a monster crop coming in There’s optimism in the air, but trouble may not be far behind. Cattle’s Relentless Rally: Opportunity or Overheated?

Report Shock, Soybean Setup, and Corn's New Reality This week’s market wasn’t just eventful—it was historic. In the latest Hedge Heads Insider , Jon and Ryan unpack what may be one of the most disruptive reports in decades. A surprise acreage switch sent shockwaves through the corn and soybean markets, while volatility in cattle and hints of weakness in the stock market round out a week that feels like a turning point. The Big Picture: What Changed? A massive shift in acreage

The Market Dilemma: Time to Exit Shorts on Corn? After weeks of downside pressure, corn just got a jolt: new crop exports hit a record-setting 3.1 million metric tons—1.5 million above what would already be considered a strong number. That kind of demand doesn’t just show up without consequence. While it’s too soon to call a bottom, this is the kind of data that tends to stop the bleeding—and could begin to shift the tone.

Market Breakdown: Grains Can’t Find the Floor It’s hard to sugarcoat it—grain markets are ugly. Despite record exports and shrinking global stockpiles, corn and soybeans keep sliding. Why? It’s all about the cash market . The funds aren’t just speculating—they’re reacting to what they see in the real-world grain trade. And right now, there’s no sign from the cash side that they’re wrong. Basis remains weak, storage is full, and cash bids haven’t turned. Until that changes, do

Corn Market Pops — Is It Just Holiday Fireworks? This week’s sudden rally in corn has traders buzzing. With prices surging and headlines swirling, we’re left with one big question: Is this a real move… or just another short-covering head fake? Ryan and Jon break down this week's surprise price action and lay out the factors driving what might be the most interesting (and confusing) week in corn so far this summer. The Big Picture: What Happened This Week Corn prices jumped on

When Silence Says Everything Phones aren't ringing. The market’s sliding. And if you're not already short, you're probably stuck wondering what move to make next. This week, we’re looking at a market that’s doing everything wrong —seasonally, structurally, and sentiment-wise. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities. You just have to know where to look. Corn: Grinding Lower with No Fight Left? Seasonally, this is supposed to be the top. But 2025 hasn’t followed the us

Soybeans: The 65-Cent Swing That Hit Hard Out East, major grain buyers just flipped from 20 over July to 20 under November. That’s a 65-cent hit in one move—and it crushed expectations for a tightening cash market. This wasn’t noise. It was a signal. And it told us something serious: buyers think they’ve got enough beans to ride through summer. Bear spreads confirm it. July is slipping while November firms up. The bullish case for beans just cracked.

When July corn trades under December in early June, something’s off. This week’s Insider unpacks the signal in the spreads, the value in cheap options, and how to think through your next move without guessing the weather. Corn Spreads Are Breaking the Script Typically, July trades above December—especially if supply is tight. But this year? That’s flipped. It’s a sign the market sees more corn out there than official numbers admit. Jon and Ryan explain why this kind of invers

It’s not chaos—it’s opportunity. This week’s Hedge Heads Insider drops in the middle of a rare window: strong planting progress, low option premiums, and a market that suddenly stopped going down. If you’ve been waiting to put on protection or scale up positions, you may be running out of time. Planting progress? No real issues this time around. Most of the West moved at record pace, and even with a few breakdowns or delays here and there, overall progress is right on track.

Beans Are Back: Why Soy Is the Market to Watch This Summer Rain, wind, and cooler temps have paused the drought chatter—but underneath...

Corn’s got a mood—and it’s ugly. No love from the funds, no bounce from the bulls, and somehow, despite strong exports and low carryout numbers, the market’s trading like everything’s just fine. Spoiler: it’s not. Jon and Ryan open this week’s Insider by calling out what isn’t  in the market yet—weather risk. That’s a rare thing. For the first time in a long while, we’re entering planting’s final stretch with zero  weather premium priced in. That’s the setup worth watching. A

The markets are moving—but not in sync. This week’s Hedge Heads Insider digs into the strange signals coming out of wheat, corn, and cattle, and why patience might be your best strategy this spring. Market Breakdown 📉 Wheat: Grinding Lower, Opportunity Ahead? Wheat's short-term outlook looks bleak, with rains in Kansas and the Ohio Valley weighing on prices. But with no major bullish news and a market that’s slowly bleeding lower, a bottom may be forming. John’s watching the