Insider Only

Spring markets are giving producers a familiar—but uncomfortable—feeling: strong prices without a clear reason why. In this week’s Hedge Heads episode, Jon and Ryan break down a grain market that’s being driven less by fundamentals and more by outside money and inflation narratives. As Jon puts it, “Save yourself some time—nobody knows.” Funds have built large long positions across grains, creating opportunity—but also risk if sentiment shifts. The Market Dilemma: Is This Ra

Markets rarely move in a straight line—but some weeks accelerate quickly. A sharp move higher in crude oil combined with disruptions in key global shipping routes has injected fresh uncertainty into agricultural markets. The grain markets themselves aren’t facing an immediate physical shortage. But the possibility of fertilizer disruptions, shifting acreage decisions, and unstable energy markets is enough to make traders nervous—and when uncertainty rises, volatility usually

Spring is starting to show up. Snow is disappearing, fields will soon be drying out, and before long many of you will be thinking about getting planters ready. But while the seasons are shifting, the markets are doing something else entirely. They’re getting harder to read. This week Ryan and Jon talked through what they’re seeing right now across grains, energy, and cattle markets. The short version is simple: The markets are moving quickly, several different forces are infl

The Least Trusted Bean Rally Soybeans are climbing, and hardly anyone believes in it. Export inspections have been disappointing. Sales are lagging historical benchmarks. The U.S. remains priced above South American supplies. On paper, it’s not the recipe for a sustained rally. And yet here we are. As Jon said this week, “It’s not the most hated soybean rally. It’s the least trusted soybean rally.” That perfectly captures the tone of this market. It’s not outright bearish se

Markets were reminded this week how quickly sentiment can shift when headlines hit. One announcement was enough to send funds scrambling out of equities and into soybeans, lighting a fire under a market that had been sitting quietly just days earlier. Volatility returned in a hurry, spreads reacted aggressively, and producers were once again forced to answer the same uncomfortable question: do you act now, or do you wait and risk missing it? The Market Dilemma At the heart of

January Ends, But the Real Heat Is Just Starting As the calendar turns, markets aren’t waiting around. This week’s Insider captures a surprising shift across commodities: metals ripping higher, crude finally catching a bid, and grains sitting in the shadow of it all. Jon and Ryan unpack the signals behind the moves—and what it means for the bin-busting crop still waiting to be sold. The Market Dilemma: Stick to the Plan—or Shift Gears? Cold weather, full bins, and a tired gra

The Market Dilemma: Hedge the Quiet or Trade the Noise? Energy markets are heating up while grains remain stubbornly quiet. For producers, this creates a familiar challenge: where should you focus your attention when some markets are surging and others are stalled? Corn Corn continues to grind sideways with little momentum in either direction. Each rally seems to stall out and each dip finds support. Jon’s approach is simple but active: trade the range. He’s sending text aler

Report Strategy Around major reports, options are best viewed as tools for managing event risk rather than long-term positions. Shorter-term options can make sense if the sole purpose is to cover the report itself. If the market reacts favorably, you have choices. If it does not, the risk is defined and limited. The key is being willing to exit if the option no longer serves its original purpose.

The Market Dilemma: Sit Tight or Strike Soon? Markets are quiet. Too quiet. And while that can feel like a relief after the chaos of harvest or fall volatility, it’s also dangerous. When there’s no clear trend, producers are left asking: is this the bottom, or just a lull before another leg lower? Jon’s take is clear: this is the time to plan—not panic. Even if there’s no rally in sight, the best opportunities tend to come when everyone else is asleep at the wheel. Corn: A Ca

The Market Dilemma: Hedge the Rally or Ride the Risk? Cattle markets are moving again—and fast. Cash bids are aggressive, feeder prices are climbing, and optimism is creeping back in. But the foundation? Still shaky. Global beef imports from Argentina, Australia, and Brazil are gaining traction. Two ports look ready to open, and a recent regulatory approval suggests border policy could shift fast. That would flood the market with imported product—and potentially undercut dome

We’re seeing a rally in grains that looks tempting on the surface — but when you dig in, the foundation is shaky. For producers, the question isn’t simply “Should I sell?” but rather: “How should I hedge if I’m not ready to sell yet?”

The Market Dilemma After months of sluggish moves and quiet boards, volatility is back—and not gently. Soybeans saw a 44-cent overnight swing, and while the headlines hint at hope (China trade talk), the fine print reveals a lot more nuance. So the question is: Are you prepared to act in volatile markets—or are you hoping volatility will act for you? Jon put it best: “It’s not ‘store it and ignore it.’ It’s ‘store it—and be ready to sell if it looks good.’” Soybeans: Opportun

Harvest is rolling fast, and with it comes a sense of pause in the markets. But don’t confuse quiet for calm. The soybean complex is quietly building toward a potential pivot, with the December straddle suggesting a 31-cent move in either direction. That’s a clear signal the market is bracing for impact. If China shows up at the end-of-month meeting and buys, even modestly, it could lift prices across grains. If they don’t, or if the meeting falls apart, expect another wave o

The Market Dilemma: Bin Full, Market UnclearWith corn still coming in and space at a premium, producers are facing one of the most important decisions of the season: what to do with the extra bushels. Should you sell it now, store it, or reown it on paper? This isn’t just a marketing choice—it’s a risk management strategy that could shape your bottom line. "Important decisions are being made right now—and there’s no one-size-fits-all answer." – Jon Some are looking to move gr

As harvest rolls on, the biggest question many producers face isn’t “What price can I get?” — it’s “What’s the smartest way to carry risk from here?” Market Dilemma: Store, Sell, or Strategize? We’re in that time of year when yield debates dominate, social media fills with claims of “market ruiners,” and producers wrestle with whether to hold grain or to use options. Jon and Ryan open this episode by tackling just that head‑on. The challenge: how do you move forward when the

With six straight dry weeks followed by a four‑day rain stretch, timing has all but delivered a curveball. The fields are about to open, and everything from yield estimates to hedging strategy is hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, markets are wrestling with inflation, China deals, and USDA figures that many are quietly ignoring. Whatever happens next, producers need a clear plan, not just hope. Market Dilemma: Hedge Now or Watch It Unfold? You’ve probably heard the saying: “S

The Market Dilemma: Producers are asking: should you sit tight or start hedging now? Grain markets are resting, options and spreads whispering rather than shouting. But with harvest just getting underway and a major USDA report due at week’s end, waiting too long might leave you exposed. Corn & Soybeans: Corn has put in a big crop, but storage is heavy and bids weak. The spread between corn and wheat remains compressed, limiting upside until demand catches up. For soybeans, s

The Market Dilemma: To Re‑own or Not This Fall With storage dwindling and bear market undercurrents everywhere, producers face tough calls: should you re‑enter the market or let it ride in the cash market? Corn is quietly gaining ground off last week’s lows, while soybeans struggle amid tepid demand and bearish sentiment. Let’s break down the strategic path forward. Corn: Quiet Strength Meets Export Opportunity Corn futures have ticked up roughly 20 cents recently, reflecting

No Catalyst, No Rally: Grains on Ice Until China Moves The grain markets are stuck in neutral. Volatility is low, prices are lethargic, and there’s no obvious driver to get things moving. It’s not a comforting place to be—but it’s a familiar one. For producers, the challenge now isn’t predicting the next move. It’s staying strategically positioned while we wait for something— anything —to shift. Let’s unpack where things stand and what options remain on the table. The Market

This week, Jon and Ryan sat down just before the market open with a fast-paced look at three huge developments reshaping the ag markets: Cattle pushing new highs Corn and beans moving on exports—but with warning signs The crop tour confirming what many feared: we’ve got a monster crop coming in There’s optimism in the air, but trouble may not be far behind. Cattle’s Relentless Rally: Opportunity or Overheated?