A Season in Transition — Waiting on the Yield Jury
- Zach Abramson
- Sep 18
- 3 min read
With six straight dry weeks followed by a four‑day rain stretch, timing has all but delivered a curveball. The fields are about to open, and everything from yield estimates to hedging strategy is hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, markets are wrestling with inflation, China deals, and USDA figures that many are quietly ignoring. Whatever happens next, producers need a clear plan, not just hope.
Market Dilemma: Hedge Now or Watch It Unfold?
You’ve probably heard the saying: “Store it and ignore it.” This year, that mindset feels risky. Yield reports are thin and mostly disappointing so far. Beans are especially mysterious. Corn isn’t far behind. The question becomes: if markets are nudging upward based on imperfect or early signals, do you wait or do you lock something in?
Key tensions:
USDA numbers are out, but the market seems to think they don’t tell the full story.
Rain now helps, but it may come too late for some yield metrics.
