Ryan Tungseth

New Year, New Outlook: Navigating the January 12th Yield Report Welcome to the first edition of 2026. While the markets have been relatively boring lately, we are approaching a major catalyst: the January 12th USDA final yield report . Because previous reporting cycles were disrupted by government shutdowns, this specific report is expected to finally fill in the missing "puzzle pieces" and may hold a surprise or two regarding the U.S. crop. Corn Market: Watching the "Quiet" Strength The corn...

When volatility dries up, most people do the same two things: they either force a trade out of boredom, or they freeze and miss the window when it finally opens. This week’s Hedge Heads episode was a good reminder of a third option: treat patience like a position.  With Theta Farmer on the show, the conversation stayed grounded in how options and hedges behave in real life—especially in the kind of slow, frustrating markets where “doing something” often costs more than it helps. Below is a...

This year’s grain decisions feel heavier than usual—and that’s not just in your head. Margins are tighter. Inputs are still expensive. Cash flow matters more. And the market isn’t offering easy answers. In this kind of environment, instinct and tradition can get costly. The only thing that really cuts through the noise is running the numbers. That’s what we’re doing this week. This newsletter breaks down how to think about grain decisions at year-end—not from a prediction standpoint, but from...