Ryan Tungseth

The Risk Right Now Isn’t Just Price — It’s Assuming This Year Is Normal For the last two years, the corn market followed a fairly predictable script. Planting went smoothly. Weather stayed cooperative. Rain kept showing up in the forecast. And by late spring, the market had enough confidence in a massive crop that rallies faded quickly. That pattern trained producers to expect the same outcome: Sell strength early Protect against a summer collapse Don’t overthink it But this year may not fit...

Why This Market Feels More Dangerous Than Most Producers Realize For the last several years, grain marketing has largely been about managing oversupply, weak demand signals, and short-lived rallies. This market feels different. Not because the grain fundamentals are suddenly bullish — but because outside forces are starting to overwhelm the normal rules. Oil prices are climbing Interest rates are rising again Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate Money is flowing back into commodities...

Markets have been moving higher. On the surface, it looks constructive. Strength across commodities. Outside markets pushing capital into the commodity space has grains and cattle moving up. But underneath? The structure isn’t lining up. Cattle remain bullish but, the grains don't have the fundamentals. The Illusion of Strength There are times when markets rally because demand is improving. And there are times when markets rally because money is flowing in. Right now, this looks a lot more...