Corn, Calls, and the Clock: Hedging Plans Before It’s Too Late

The Hedging Crossroads

It’s that time of year, when producers either commit to a plan or let the market make decisions for them. In this week’s Hedge Heads episode, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down three core paths for corn hedging and why the window for smart planning is narrower than it looks.

Right now, demand is strong. Basis is firm. But stocks are burdensome, and talk of 95 to 97 million corn acres is growing louder. There’s just not much room for error. If you’re still waiting to lock in a plan, this is your reminder that “do nothing” is a strategy too and it doesn’t always pay.

Corn Market Breakdown: 3 Paths Producers Are Taking

🔹 Path 1: Sit Tight and Wait for a Rally

The most common play, and the most dangerous. With tight cash bids and strong ethanol/export demand, some farmers are holding grain, hoping for a pop. But when the market turns, it might turn fast. If this is your plan, make sure you’ve got price targets and a clear exit.

🔹 Path 2: Lock in With HTAs and Layer in Calls

If you need cash or just want certainty, locking in at current levels (especially using March ‘27 futures) might be the best move. You can layer in value later by selling calls or buying September calls to re-own the upside if weather becomes a factor.

🔹 Path 3: Sell and Re-Own With Cheap September Calls

September options are pricing in little premium, with $4.70 calls going for around 15 cents. If you’re selling old crop, these can provide summer exposure without tying up capital. But timing matters. The pipeline isn’t full yet and you don’t want to be the last one out.

What Could Actually Push Corn Higher?

Jon and Ryan explore the two realistic catalysts:

1. Weather – U.S. planting risk or early-season stress is still the biggest wild card.

2. Real Inflation – Gold and silver are screaming, but corn hasn’t followed. If oil starts to move, watch out.

But don’t bank on government reports or sudden demand shocks. Both are already priced in.

Actionable Takeaways

✔️ Set cash sale targets ahead of the crowd (think $4.33 to $4.42—not round numbers)

✔️ Consider HTAs on March futures to pick up carry without margin risk

✔️ Look at September calls if you’re selling bins now but want to stay in the game

✔️ Build your plan around your cost structure, not just hope for a rally

✔️ Get it done before the snow melts—because it’s going to move fast from here

Final Thoughts: It’s Not Too Late—Yet

There’s still time to be early. But not much. Whether you’re selling into strength, hedging with flexibility, or holding out for weather, the key is having a plan before everyone else does.