Store, Sell, or Re-Own? Smarter Moves for a Tough Market

Breaking the Marketing Cycle

Every fall, the same question surfaces: Should I store, sell, or re-own?It’s a simple question with big consequences — and this year, it’s harder than ever to answer.

Soybeans have been stubborn, corn remains expensive relative to wheat, and many producers feel trapped in the same cycle of waiting too long and selling too low. But as Jon Prischman put it in this week’s Hedge Heads episode, “What you want is to be the guy who’s not asking this anymore.”

That means developing a plan — not just reacting to prices.

Why 2025’s Markets Feel So Difficult

This year brought perfect weather across nearly every major growing region — South America, the U.S., and beyond. With no real weather scares, supply stayed strong, and volatility stayed low. That’s made marketing tough: fewer rallies, smaller price windows, and more pressure to make decisions without obvious opportunities.

Corn remains historically expensive compared to wheat, creating challenges for feed use and export competitiveness. Soybeans, meanwhile, are stuck in a global expansion cycle that’s hard to break.

The takeaway: these markets reward flexibility, not hope.

Smarter Ways to Re-Own

If you’re selling off the combine, there are still ways to maintain upside exposure. Jon outlined a few strategies in this episode:

• Cautious Longs: Pairing long futures with protective puts to cap downside risk while keeping potential gains.

• Courage Calls: Using calls to keep upside open after selling cash grain.

• Timing Flexibility: Planning ahead for November 2026 contracts instead of reacting in the fall.
  

The goal isn’t to predict the market — it’s to stay ready when opportunity appears.

Wheat, Corn & the Feed Spread

One of the biggest under-the-radar stories this fall is the widening gap between corn and wheat. Wheat has dropped to some of its lowest relative values in 20 years, especially in Kansas. That spread matters — not just for traders, but for anyone watching feed demand.

“Either wheat’s way too cheap, or corn’s way too expensive,” Jon explained. “And guys don’t want to hear that, but it’s the truth.”

Producers who understand that relationship will be better positioned for 2025’s feed and export markets.

Crude, Gold, and the Bigger Picture

Beyond the farm gate, there are some early warning signs in the broader economy. Crude oil has slipped to the mid-$50s — a bearish indicator historically linked to slower demand. At the same time, gold and silver have surged, hinting at nervous money moving toward safety.

While none of that means panic, it does mean paying attention. These macro signals can ripple into commodity prices faster than most expect.

Final Thoughts: Stop Reading, Start Planning

It’s easy to scroll through social media and get frustrated. But the best producers are turning that energy into planning. Every marketing cycle can be improved — and this fall is a chance to start fresh.

As Jon put it: “In three years, you’ll be running a lot leaner and a lot meaner — and you might not even need us anymore.”

Until then, get a plan, get flexible, and don’t wait for perfect markets — because they rarely come twice.

🎧 Listen to the full episode: thehedgeheads.com/podcast