Corn Holds Firm, Beans Under Pressure, and Did Cattle Lose Momentum?

Corn: Firm, But Fragile The last two years, corn spiked in September before dropping back. Could this year follow the same script?

Jon Prischmann pointed back to “courage calls” that had been bought near the lows at $4.45. The idea isn’t downside protection — it’s giving producers the confidence to make a cash or futures sale while still leaving the door open if prices climb. That way, you don’t sit frozen waiting for the “perfect” high. Random bursts of strength can appear out of nowhere, then vanish just as quickly. Brazil’s big crop being diverted into ethanol is also helping U.S. exports stay competitive.

Soybeans: China’s Silence Is Loud China’s absence in the fall buying window is unusual—even during trade disputes, fall typically brought orders. With South America’s expanded acreage and better infrastructure, China has leaned heavily that direction.

Ryan Tungseth pointed out that March $12 soybean calls were priced around 8¢ compared to 22¢ for July. He wasn’t recommending action, but noting the difference:

• Buying calls could re-own beans on paper if cash sales are necessary for storage or cash flow, while limiting risk to the small upfront premium.

• Selling calls generates income now but caps future upside. Also, the low implied volatility makes this very unattractive at these low prices.

Neither path is “right” — just examples of how different strategies can look when volatility is low and the market lacks its usual buyer.

Cattle: Futures Finally Caught Cash For months, cattle futures chased cash higher. Last week, they finally caught up—then stalled. With the premium gone, futures don’t need to push higher unless boxed beef prices rally.

Jon noted that this post–Labor Day period is seasonally softer: school routines pull people off the grill, cattle stay out on pasture longer thanks to cheap feed, and volatility tends to rise. Watch boxed beef as the leading signal.

Strategy Spotlight: Base Hits, Not Home Runs Ryan reminded listeners: “Take the base hits.” In today’s markets, 5¢ is a win. A few of the examples raised in the conversation:

• Short March futures near $4.45 while holding a short-term call as insurance.

• Looking at soybean straddles/strangles when volatility is sucked out — for example, the March 10.70 straddle around 80¢.

• Combining futures and in-the-money puts in different ratios to create flexibility as the market moves.

These aren’t recommendations — just illustrations of how different approaches can be structured when markets move unpredictably.

Final Thoughts Corn’s firmness, soybeans’ missing buyer, and cattle’s stall all point to the same theme: unpredictability. This fall isn’t about “store and ignore.” It’s about paying attention, staying nimble, and being ready when opportunity shows up.