Why Fresh Ideas Matter More Than Ever

Ideas, Basis & Risk — What This Market Demands in 2025

This isn’t the year for autopilot. Markets are heavy with carry, basis is weak, and cash won’t cover the bills if you just sit and wait. If you want to make it through 2025, you’ll need ideas — and lots of them.

Corn & the Storage Trap The old strategy of “bin it and forget it” hasn’t worked in years. Holding grain into spring or summer has been a disaster, and it could be again. What matters more than anything? Basis. If basis firms, you’ve got a reason to store. If it doesn’t, rallies are sells. That’s the real barometer of this market — not the chatter on Twitter.

Remember 2020? The so-called “Great Grain Robbery.” Basis was strong for two years, but fear kept producers from taking advantage. When the dust cleared, most were left watching the rally from the sidelines. The lesson: don’t ignore basis signals.

Soybeans: Signals & Surprises Soy meal spreads looked dead for weeks — then exploded higher in five days. It’s a perfect reminder that opportunities often come after most traders have given up. On paper, beans look okay, but basis is weak and China is still sitting out. If China suddenly comes to the table, basis and spreads will ramp up fast. Until then, caution is the name of the game.

And if you’re tempted to store beans? This might be the year to take that shot. With just 81 million acres planted, the acreage alone could set up a rally — but only if demand shows up.

Cattle: Riding the Bull (Carefully) Cash is strong, packers are cutting kills, and futures just won’t break. The fundamentals look solid, but this is still a futures market — and when it turns, it could turn fast. Everyone agrees the herd isn’t rebuilt, but demand and imports will be what ends this run, not supply.

Puts are expensive, but they’re gaining traction as producers treat them like insurance. The flexibility to cash in on a break, then ride the rebound higher, is worth the cost. Because one thing’s certain: when this bull ends, it won’t be gentle.

The Bigger Picture: Risk & Resilience Across grains and livestock, the same truth holds: no single strategy will save you.

• Cash flow is tight — involve your banker early and bring a plan.

• Get multiple ideas on the table. Even if most aren’t right for you, they spark the thinking you’ll need.

• Don’t double down on hope. Tailor your moves to your storage, credit, and operation.

This market rewards the prepared — not the passive.

Final Thoughts Every year brings challenges, but 2025 demands a sharper playbook. Corn, beans, cattle — none of them are handing out easy wins. The producers who thrive will be the ones who stay nimble, keep new ideas flowing, and let basis and spreads tell the truth.

🎧 For the full conversation, catch this week’s Hedge Heads episode → Right Here