Everyone’s Panicking. We’re Planning. Let’s Go.
- Ryan Tungseth
- Apr 8
- 3 min read
When the Dust Settles, Who’s Still Standing?
This week, everything that could break, did. Grains, cattle, crude, metals—you name it. Social media’s in meltdown mode. But if you’re still standing, still thinking, and still planning—you’re already ahead. At Hedge Heads, we’re not chasing headlines. We’re watching the undercurrents. And this week, they’re more telling than ever.
🌽 Corn Spreads Are Speaking—Loudly
While most of the ag complex was under pressure, corn held its ground. But what caught Jon’s eye wasn’t just the price—it was the spreads. Old crop vs. new crop, front vs. deferred: certain relationships strengthened even as the broader market sagged.
What to Watch:
Bull spreads showing strength—often a sign of commercial support.
Corn vs. wheat spread tightening—something to track closely.
Divergence between nearby and deferred months—potential early signal of sentiment shift.
Why It Matters: When the whole sector drops but one crop refuses to crack? That’s not noise—it’s positioning.
🌱 Bean Volatility Is Mispriced (For Now)
Soybeans were part of the broader washout, but Jon sees something different: volatility that isn’t pricing in enough risk. That’s rare—especially this time of year. The result? Bean calls are looking cheap. That doesn’t mean it’s time to load up. But it does mean there’s a case for calculated, low-risk upside exposure.
Tactical Take:
July and September calls could offer favorable setups.
Look for strikes that still benefit from any surprise bounce or weather premium.
Volatility tends to spike when you least expect it—cheap calls won’t stay that way.
Bottom Line: Beans are soft, but summer’s coming. Options are your “cheap insurance” if things get weird fast.
🥩 Cattle: Panic Selling ≠ Bear Market
The cattle market finally cracked—and hard. But Jon and Ryan are clear: this wasn't about changing fundamentals. This was classic fund-driven liquidation. When that hits, price action becomes erratic and exaggerated.
What’s Key Now:
Liquidity dried up. When buyers vanish, prices overreact.
Oversold bounces are likely—but don’t confuse those with reversals.
Hedgers: stay small, stay nimble, and keep risk defined.
The Smart Approach: Cattle aren’t broken—but sentiment is. And sentiment always rebalances.
🛢 Crude Collapse & Macro Mayhem
Energy markets buckled this week, with crude taking the biggest hit. But again, it wasn’t purely about supply/demand—it was about forced selling, margin calls, and macro stress. When funds need to raise cash, everything gets sold.
Key Observations:
Crude may still have more downside, but long-term value ranges are approaching.
Metals like platinum and copper got dragged into the mess—watch for stabilization before action.
This is where cross-asset correlations matter—risk-off is contagious.
Hedger’s Tip: If you buy fuel, use this volatility to review your hedging window. Markets don’t stay this panicked forever.
💸 Interest Rates: The Sleeper Market No One’s Watching
While the ag world focused on grains and cattle, something subtle happened in interest rates: a creeping return of volatility. Jon flagged this as a market to watch—not because it’s hot now, but because it’s about to get loud.
Things to Consider:
Rate products may soon offer hedging strategies for ag borrowers.
As the Fed navigates inflation, market sentiment will shift—fast.
Tools like SOFR futures and rate options are underused in the ag space.
Big Picture: When rates move, they often move fast. Don’t wait until it’s headline news to care.
🧠 Final Thoughts: This Is the Work
This isn’t the fun part. This is the hard part. The part where emotion screams louder than logic. But this is also the real part of trading—where setups emerge, mispricings appear, and noise becomes opportunity.
At Hedge Heads, we’re not chasing the trend. We’re hunting for signals beneath the chaos.
Chaos? Opportunity? Both? We’re planning. Let’s go.
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