The Seasonal Countdown Is On: Risk Management Lessons from the Field

Ryan Tungseth
Apr 29
2 min read

May to Mid-June: The Most Critical Window for 2025 Crop Marketing Is Here

The Clock Is Ticking: Why Risk Management Matters Now

In this week’s Hedge Heads podcast, we bring on Mike — known to many as ThetaFarmer on X — to share a real-world, boots-on-the-ground view of smart hedging and trading strategies. At just 28 years old, Mike is farming, trading, and advising other farmers — and he's sounding the alarm: the next 45 days could make or break the 2025 crop year.

He’s not chasing predictions. He’s building plans — based on probability, seasonals, and risk efficiency.

Here's what you need to know before the window closes.

Capital Efficiency: The Secret to Staying Alive

Grain in the bin feels safe, but Mike explains why it's often a silent profit killer.Instead of tying up thousands of dollars in stored grain (and paying interest on operating loans), he shows how futures — or selling strategic call options — can put capital back to work without giving up market exposure.

The takeaway:

In 2025, farmers need to think like CFOs. Every bushel stored has an opportunity cost — and smart marketing can double your return without adding acres.

Protecting the Downside Without Giving Up the Upside

Mike breaks down his favorite strategy heading into the summer volatility season:

Instead of locking in a flat futures sale early...
He buys put spreads to protect downside risk while keeping upside open in case of weather rallies.

Why?Because right now, you need to defend your floor without capping your ceiling. Weather volatility could offer opportunity — but only if you still have room to move.

The May–Mid-June Window: History's Most Powerful Seasonal

Corn markets historically top between early May and mid-June.Mike’s plan?

Watch trends closely.
Get short or tighten up protection once downtrends start.

Add to that a potential trade war, and the stakes get even higher:

The last time U.S.–China tensions flared, beans dropped to $8.50.
Today, they're over $10 — but how long can that last?

Miss this window, and you might be stuck marketing into a falling market — just like 2018 and 2019.

Mindset Over Markets: The Psychology of Winning

Mike’s biggest lesson?

"The market doesn’t care about your break-even."

It sounds harsh, but it’s the truth every producer needs to hear. Instead of hoping prices cooperate, Mike builds strategies that work across outcomes:

Follow the trend, not your feelings.
Plan exits before you enter.
Never add to a losing position.

In volatile years, mindset beats market moves — every time.

Final Thoughts: Act Before the Market Does

The next 30–45 days will define the marketing year for many farmers.Between weather volatility, trade war risks, and seasonal tendencies, sitting idle isn’t a plan — it’s a gamble.

👉 Reassess your positions. 👉 Protect what needs protecting.

👉 Stay flexible for what’s next.

🎧 Catch the full conversation with Mike (@FarmerTheta) on this week’s Hedge Heads Podcast. [Listen now → link]

📩 Sign up for weekly market insights and stay ahead → [newsletter signup link]