No Weather Premium in Corn? That’s Your Setup.
- Ryan Tungseth
- May 8
- 3 min read
Corn’s got a mood—and it’s ugly. No love from the funds, no bounce from the bulls, and somehow, despite strong exports and low carryout numbers, the market’s trading like everything’s just fine. Spoiler: it’s not.
Jon and Ryan open this week’s Insider by calling out what isn’t in the market yet—weather risk. That’s a rare thing. For the first time in a long while, we’re entering planting’s final stretch with zero weather premium priced in. That’s the setup worth watching.
And right on cue, here comes the seasonal drama. As planting wraps (USDA update drops Monday), the narrative shifts hard toward heat, drought, and yield fears. West is dry. East is soggy. Midwest? Still up in the air.
Corn Market Mood: Grim but Set to Shift
Despite morning headlines of strong exports, corn continues to get beat up—especially July futures. That tells you everything about market psychology right now: good news doesn't matter.
Jon puts it bluntly: “Nothing makes this market happy.” We’ve got what looks like strong demand, tight-ish supply, and yet... the funds are committed to the short side. The last time we saw this kind of stubborn market was 2012—when reality finally punched its way in via the drought.
Will 2025 rhyme with that history? Too early to say. But what’s clear: the setup is eerily similar.
