Why Corn’s Acting Broken—and Why Cattle Won’t Quit

Markets Are Split—What Smart Hedgers Should Be Doing Right Now

The Great Corn Disconnect

Corn is going in fast—40% planted, ahead of the five-year average—and the weather looks ideal. Historically, that’s bearish. When planting is smooth and early, the market tends to price in a bumper crop well before we know if it’ll actually materialize.

At the same time, exports remain strong. If we’re selling so much corn, shouldn’t prices be rising? Normally, yes. But right now, traders are focused on pace and acreage. If 95 million acres get planted, and South America’s crop holds up, we could be staring at a huge carryout by fall 2025.

That’s why July corn just dropped 15 cents in a single session. This market isn’t reacting to fundamentals—it’s reacting to fear, positioning, and timing.

So what’s the move? Right now, the best position might be no position—just preparation.

Stick and Move: Strategy for a Six-Week Window

The next six weeks are critical. This is the time of year when things can change fast—and historically do. Think flash droughts, surprise rain patterns, or a well-timed tariff announcement.

But those aren’t things you can plan around. What you can do is set up the right conditions to move quickly when opportunity strikes.

Here’s how Jon suggests you approach it:

• Watch volatility: When implied volatility spikes (often on weather scares), it can be a good time to sell premium—especially deferred calls.

• Pick your levels now: Maybe you don’t want to hedge at $4.80. But what if July rallies to $5.60 on hot weather? What strike price are you ready to sell?

• Don’t sell too early: Selling calls or puts too early in a weather market is a fast way to get run over. Wait for the scare, not the setup.

• Don’t try to win the year in a day. You’re trying to build a better average price, not catch the top or bottom tick.

As Ryan put it: “It’s a stick-and-move market. Not a hold-and-hope market.”

Cattle: A Market That Refuses to Quit

While corn flounders, cattle marches on. Futures are climbing. Cash prices are firm. Retail demand is high—and somehow, the same number of cattle as last year is fetching dramatically better prices.

October–December cattle spreads are at record levels for this time of year. The board is catching up to cash, and bulls are chasing a market that barely takes a breath.

Jon’s target? $218 by June. Ryan’s leaning toward February for a high. But timing the top in cattle is a fool’s game unless you’re nimble.

The strategy here is the same: Know why you're in, and be ready to get out.

Soybeans: The Quiet Setup

If you’re looking for a speculative play, Jon likes soybeans. Here's why:

• Cheaper options: Soybean calls are more affordable than corn right now.

• Faster reaction: Beans tend to rally faster on hot and dry weather.

• Low acreage = high sensitivity: With fewer acres in the ground, weather threats have more impact.

Look into bull call spreads or near-the-money options with defined risk. Don’t buy $14 calls and hope. Get close to the money and make a plan.

Final Thoughts: Corn Feels Broken—But It Might Just Be Early

Prices are falling in the face of good news (exports) and good weather (early planting). That’s confusing—but it’s also typical for this time of year.

We’re in the window where patience matters most. Markets may feel irrational now, but we know this: weather markets reward those who plan ahead and act quickly.

Don’t hedge out of panic. Hedge out of preparation.

Catch this week’s podcast for Jon’s full take on spread opportunities, volatility traps, and why he still believes soybeans are the smarter spec.

Questions about your strategy? Call Jon at (218) 731-1578.