The Market’s Upside Down—But That’s No Excuse to Skip Your Plan
- Ryan Tungseth
- Apr 14
- 2 min read
Market Breakdown: What’s Happening?
Commodity markets are playing by new rules this spring. Soybeans are rallying on bad news. Corn’s front months are down even as export demand soars. And fund money is piling into the back months—for reasons that don’t seem to make much sense.
This week’s Hedge Heads podcast dives into the market signals (or lack thereof) and what they mean for your strategy. Here's what we're watching:
Soybeans: They’re bidding for acres and ignoring bearish headlines. This could be a false signal—or a setup for a surprise China deal.
Corn: Great export numbers, poor front-end strength. That disconnect is confusing, but the seasonal window for rallies is coming soon. Be ready.
Cattle: Cattle markets are on edge as equity volatility yanks money out of previously strong positions. Fundamentals remain good, but sentiment is fragile.
Actionable Takeaways
Have a Plan—NowWhether you’re over-hedged, under-hedged, or still deciding, now’s the time to model out your strategy. The next 8-10 weeks are historically the most active.
Consider Non-Traditional MovesWith volatility high and fund behavior erratic, keep flexibility in your hedging. That may mean watching short-term spreads or testing put-call hybrids.
Factor in Outside MarketsMacro volatility (stocks, interest rates, even geopolitics) is affecting futures markets more than ever. Be aware of how outside money is impacting your contracts.
Final Thoughts: Plan, Don’t Predict
It’s not about guessing right. It’s about being ready. With headlines, spreads, and weather patterns pulling in different directions, clarity is hard to come by. The good news? You don’t need perfect clarity to protect your bottom line. Just a plan, and the discipline to stick with it.
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