Momentum is Winning. Fundamentals are Dead. What Now?

Ryan Tungseth
Jun 2
2 min read

When Markets Break the Rules

Let’s get this out of the way:

This isn’t normal.

Corn is trading at harvest lows… in May.

Export inspections are strong.

Carryout is tight.

Ukraine just escalated.

The market doesn’t care.

The question isn’t “Why?” anymore. It’s “How long can this last?”

Because eventually—these trades reverse. And when they do, they don’t whisper. They snap.

What’s Broken (And What That Means)

Let’s walk through what we’re seeing—and what you should be thinking:

Corn

Bear spreading is back. December is holding better than July. That’s a red flag for new crop pricing.
Export inspections? Good. Market reaction? Shrug.
Insurance coverage levels are acting like training wheels. Nobody’s panicking—but they’re not selling either.

Takeaway: The floor may be soft, but it hasn’t collapsed. If you’re bullish, don’t chase price—consider positioning via short-dated July calls. They’re cheap, and time is short.

Soybeans & Meal

Soy meal spreads are at 25-year lows. If this market turns, that’s where it’ll show first.
Calls are cheap—and for once, people are asking how to buy, not hedge.
July meal spreads: October vs. March is trading near 25. That’s historically tight.

Takeaway: If you want long exposure without betting the farm, meal spreads or short-term bean calls offer asymmetric setups—small risk, decent upside.

Wheat

Russia. Cold snap. Port risk. War.
Wheat reacts with… silence.
Why? Because the funds don’t care until they do—and when they do, wheat moves fast.

Takeaway: Don’t ignore it—but don’t guess either. If you play wheat, make sure it’s part of a broader volatility strategy.

The Real Story: Fundamentals Are Irrelevant—For Now

Momentum is doing the talking. That means every trade has to answer this: Are you betting the market should care—or that it will?

Right now, smart traders aren’t fighting the tape. But they are preparing.

Beyond the Board: Where We’re Looking

Here’s where Jon and Ryan are seeing movement worth watching:

Gold: Volatile but liquid—lots of sizing flexibility now with micro contracts.
Crude oil: OPEC whiplash has created high-premium short put opportunities.
Bitcoin futures: Liquidity growing. The micro contract is accessible.
Lean hogs: Seasonally strong and less noisy than grains right now.
Platinum & Sugar: More niche, but worth tracking for specialty plays.

This is where a diversified board gives traders more than just frustration—it gives them options.

Final Word: Boring Never Lasts

Commodity markets always revert to chaos. The last few weeks have been abnormal—relentless selling, good news ignored, bad news dismissed. But quiet markets are just dry kindling. All it takes is one match.

The next move won’t be polite. Get your plan ready before the market remembers how to feel again.