Markets Are Broken—But Your Strategy Doesn’t Have to Be

Shorts in Control, Volatility Ignored—Time to Trade Smarter, Not Louder

Markets shrugged at war. Shrugged at bin damage. Shrugged at storm photos and strong demand. Corn broke again. Wheat reversed hard. And soybeans? They got hit first—then recovered some ground on bullish biodiesel news. It's not a breakout, but it’s a sign of life.

If you’re still waiting for the market to “make sense,” you’re going to miss the moment. This isn’t about what should be happening. It’s about what you can do next.

Market Breakdown:

🌽 Corn: Futures say $4.19. March says $4.50. That 30¢ carry is talking—are you listening? The market’s daring you to lock it in and ignore upside. But what if you sold cash and bought a call? What if you shorted March and layered protection with a synthetic put? These aren’t theoretical. These are on the table right now.

🌱 Soybeans: Two weeks ago, cash bids dropped 65¢ overnight as elevators rolled from July to November. Then came bullish biodiesel news—and beans clawed back about half that loss. That bounce matters. So does the fact that funds haven’t gotten aggressively short. Of all the ag markets right now, soybeans may have the best story heading into August.

🐄 Cattle: Cash down $5. Futures worse. That’s a warning. So is this a top or just fund-driven noise?

🌾 Wheat: Short-covering was fun. Until it wasn’t. Now we’re back to watching spreads and wondering if wheat leads corn lower—or the other way around. Either way, this isn’t a buy-the-dip environment. It’s a trade-the-mess landscape.

Actionable Takeaways:

• If you’re still holding corn, the carry is the story—find a way to get paid for storing risk.

• Calls are cheap for a reason.

• Soybeans could be your best bet for 2025/26 as a market that could lead.

• Hard to short cattle in the hole. Watch cash vs. futures for better timing.

• Ignore sentiment. Watch positioning. Funds are still pressing everything down.

Final Thoughts: This market isn’t rewarding patience. It’s rewarding clarity.

You’re not going to get a signal from D.C. or Dubai. You’re going to get it from the carry, from basis, from fund flow, and from knowing your own position better than anyone else.

This episode of Hedge Heads lays it out without sugarcoating a thing. 🎧 Listen to the full episode now → [link]