Insider - Special Issue - Open to Everyone

Beans Are Back: Why Soy Is the Market to Watch This Summer

Rain, wind, and cooler temps have paused the drought chatter—but underneath the surface, soybean fundamentals are flashing a big warning light. With razor-thin projected carryover and an unforgiving yield requirement, soybeans are a weather story waiting to break.

This week’s Hedge Heads Insider unpacks the May report surprise, growing export strength in corn and beans, and where the smart money may be looking next.

Market Breakdown: Soybeans Have to Be Perfect—Or Else

The May report delivered a surprise: just 295 million bushels of soybean carryover, with a required yield of 52.5 bpa. That’s tight. With weather volatility on the horizon, the soybean market is now one of the most fragile—and potentially explosive—spaces in the grain complex.

The market isn’t pricing in perfection yet. And that’s why September soybean options are drawing attention. Low price levels, strengthening cash bids, and potential weather scares make limited-risk strategies (like bull call spreads or long calls) worth a look. Just be ready to move fast—the biodiesel rumor has already caused wild price swings.

Corn: Great Exports, Bad Vibes

Corn exports came in hot again this week—over 1.6 million bushels. But the market doesn’t care. July futures were crushed to the point they briefly traded below December.

Cash markets are firm, exports are strong, and there’s little fundamentally wrong. So why the disconnect? Funds continue to lean short, trading sentiment instead of supply/demand reality. The result: opportunity for producers who can navigate this chaos.

Wheat: Beaten Down but Breaking Out?

Wheat has been stuck in a long downtrend—but U.S. exports are finally picking up. And with early dryness in Minneapolis wheat now met by cooler, wetter weather, the short side may be stretched thin.

Kansas harvest pressure is real, but the global context matters. If funds shift sentiment, wheat could be due for a correction. It’s not a buy signal yet—but it’s worth watching closely.

Strategy Spotlight: Courage Calls & Bull Spreads

With option premiums rising and volatility climbing, some producers are eyeing courage calls to reopen the upside after sales. These tools aren’t for everyone—but for those with the appetite and equity, this could be the year to consider layering in upside exposure.

Bull call spreads offer another path: defined risk, cheaper premium, and a window for profit if summer delivers a scare.

Final Thoughts: Smart Moves Before the Storm

The summer setup is here: tight bean balance sheets, strong corn and wheat exports, and markets that aren’t acting like it—yet.

This is a good time to get strategies in place before emotions spike. Markets don't wait. If the forecast changes or funds flip positions, moves will be fast and volatile.

📞 Call us to talk strategy, from options to contracts to hybrids.