Grains Look Great. That’s the Problem.

Perfect Weather, Ugly Market

This is the kind of June producers dream about—ideal weather, healthy crops, and smooth planting. So why are corn prices falling apart? The answer lies in the market’s expectation game. With funds aggressively shorting corn and wheat, even solid exports and promising demand can’t fight the technical pressure and weather perfection narrative.

The market’s most “obvious” path is down, and it’s taking it. For hedgers, this creates a frustrating paradox: good news keeps coming… and prices keep falling.

Grains: No Easy Moves

• Corn: Just as $4.50 December looked actionable, the floor gave way. With implied volatility low, even short-dated puts and calls offer little reward for high risk.

• Wheat: Wet weather continues to hit wheat country, but markets aren’t responding. 

• Soybeans: Hard to know direction short term.

Hedging here feels like chasing shadows. Accumulators, short calls, or watching? None offer clean answers. As Jon put it: “Sometimes the best move is no move… but even that’s been punished.”

Meats: Where the Action Is

Cattle markets are on fire—cash trades at $243 in Nebraska, and rumors of a packer short squeeze only add fuel. But even here, hedging is tough. Futures lag cash by $20 in some contracts.

What’s working:

• Rolling up puts on feeder cattle to lock in a higher floor.

• Taking losses on lower strikes and reinvesting in higher ones if you’re comfortable with the additional cost to lock in higher floor.

Warning signs:

• Volatility is high, and moves are sharp. Futures can swing $2 in minutes.

Outside Markets: A Few Bright Spots

While grains stagnate, metals are quietly moving:

• Platinum is climbing steeply—finally catching up to the gold move.

• Silver just hit levels not seen since 2012. Is a breakout coming?

• Oats are gaining—an under-the-radar mover.

Meanwhile, crude oil is rebuilding strength and the dollar’s decline hasn’t been enough to save grain prices—despite helping exports.

Final Thoughts: Watch for the Catalyst

Grain markets are grinding lower with little upside spark—yet. China’s delegation visit could be a trigger, or we may need a weather scare. Until then, this may be a market best approached with caution.

Listen to the full podcast for strategy talk, risk management ideas, and Jon’s take on silver, cattle floors, and more. Full Podcast Here