From Tweets to Tariffs – Positioning for Opportunity in Choppy Markets
- Ryan Tungseth
- Aug 11
- 2 min read
Soybeans: Did a Trump Tweet Just Open the Door?
Markets got a surprise boost when a middle-of-the-night Trump tweet mentioned China quadrupling U.S. soybean purchases. Many online mocked it—but the specificity raises questions. Why soybeans, and why now? If there’s substance behind it—like a targeted tariff rollback—there could be real upside.
Strategic takeaway:
If you’re making harvest-time soybean sales at low prices, consider “re-owning” with March calls or call spreads. This gives you coverage through South American weather without tying up physical bushels.
Storage-limited? Paper ownership via futures or micro futures could keep upside open without bin space.
Corn: Low Volatility Makes Calls Attractive
Volatility is near multi-year lows, which makes buying options cheaper. While not wildly bullish, we see potential for a 25–30 cent rally that could confuse decision-making if you’re unprepared.
Strategic takeaway:
Use calls as “courage coverage” to make it easier to sell physical corn later.
Start tracking December 2026—current prices look too cheap relative to input costs. If it dips further, there could be an early marketing window well before most are looking.
Wheat: Watching but Waiting
Wheat’s fundamentals remain heavy, with growing ending stocks in Minneapolis, Kansas, and Chicago classes. Global buyers like China and Japan are still active, but we’re not yet seeing signs of a breakout. That said, if the weaker dollar persists, export competitiveness could improve—especially for wheat.
Macro Moves: Rates, Dollar & Energy
Interest Rates: Lower is more likely than higher. Global rate cuts and softer U.S. economic data point toward easing, but politics could delay moves.
Dollar: At its lowest in 3 years. A weaker dollar supports exports, especially for wheat and corn.
Energy: Oil remains range-bound, with every rally quickly sold. Keep an eye on the upcoming Russia–U.S. talks; sanctions changes could shift supply and prices.
Cattle: On Thin Ice
Cash cattle have held strong, but seasonal patterns suggest demand softens from mid-August into early October. Two consecutive Fridays of sharp sell-offs are warning signs.
Strategic takeaway:
If you’re long, consider puts over LRP for flexibility in a volatile market.
Watch cash prices closely—any sign of slippage could trigger a fast futures drop, even if supply remains tight.
Bottom Line
This is a market of singles and doubles, not home runs—but those add up if you plan ahead. From soybeans jolted by a tweet to low-cost corn call strategies and cattle’s seasonal patterns, the edge comes from preparation. Opportunities often appear when no one’s looking—make sure you’re ready.
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