Don’t Count Out Corn or Beans—Yet

A Market That Makes No Sense—And What To Do About It

We’re in the thick of spring, and the numbers are flying:

• 78% of corn and 66% of soybeans are already planted.

• Weather looks ideal—cool, wet, and crop-friendly.

• Corn rallied anyway.

• And old crop corn, despite strong exports and cash demand, keeps getting sold.

Confused? Good. That means you’re paying attention. Because this market isn’t about logic right now—it’s about setups, psychology, and positioning. And if you’re not watching closely, you’ll hedge too early and leave money on the table.

This week, Jon and Ryan lay out a full strategy checklist for corn, soybeans, cattle, and more.

Corn: Strong Numbers, Bearish Behavior

Here’s what’s happening:

• Old crop corn (July) is backed by strong basis and exports—but funds are adding shorts.

• New crop corn (Dec) rallied on rain. Yes, rain. It makes no sense.

• The carry between Dec 25 and July 26 is about 27¢—offering modest flexibility for timing.

So what’s the move?

Don’t short into seasonal strength.Selling calls or futures into late May/early June rallies is historically risky. If you’re going to hedge, get paid for the risk—watch for high implied volatility before pulling the trigger.

Define your zones now.Several producers told Jon their trigger is $4.64–$4.80 Dec corn. You need your own targets and orders set before the spike comes.

Soybeans: Quietly the Most Interesting Market

Soybeans are moving fast—but the yield story isn’t guaranteed. Even with rapid planting, hitting 52.5 bpa requires perfect conditions. If summer gets hot or dry, expect fireworks.

Jon sees courage calls on soybeans as more viable than corn. Low carryout and tight acreage keep the door open for a surprise rally.

Key point: Be ready to act fast. This market won’t give you two chances.

Hedging Strategy: Use Time, Not Emotion

If you’ve got no hedges on, it’s tempting to start “doing something.” But without a weather scare, selling premium now won’t buy you much protection.

A few creative moves to consider:

• Use carry to stretch downside coverage.

• Wait for implied volatility spikes before selling calls.

• Build partial positions only if your scale demands it—and layer into better coverage later.

This is a time to plan, not panic.

Cattle: The Market That Refuses to Top (Yet)

• Cash cattle in the north hit $220.

• Futures are $10 under cash, making board hedging unattractive.

• Many are turning to LRP as a stopgap.

• Expansion is coming, whether we believe it or not.

Jon’s watchlist: signs of topping behavior, futures volume patterns, and packer pressure.

Don’t ignore deferred contracts. If you’re in cattle, this is your moment to prepare, not celebrate.

Metals, Crude & Macro: Volatility and Value

• Gold is quietly climbing—slow, steady, unbothered.

• Silver and platinum are volatile, with platinum still lagging.

• Crude oil stabilized near $60, but the volatility on puts created real hedging opportunities (e.g. $47 strike puts sold for $1,100+ just two weeks ago).

• Interest rates are ticking up daily—8% mortgages and rising farm borrowing costs are real.

These aren’t just headlines. They’re shaping how you buy fuel, lease land, and structure your entire financial plan.

Final Word: This Is a Setup Year

This isn’t a year where the market gives you obvious moves. It’s a setup year—a year to watch, wait, and hit when the reward is worth the risk.

• Know your targets.

• Set your orders.

• Don’t assume this quiet will last.

Because when this market moves—it’ll move hard and fast.

Catch the full episode to hear Jon’s detailed breakdown of corn strategies, courage calls, old crop pressure, cattle pricing, and creative hedging options across the board.