Corn’s Still Falling. Cattle’s Still Flying. What Gives?

Cattle’s on a Tear—But Don’t Blink Futures are finally playing catch-up with the cash market, and open interest is rising. That’s a rare combo—and it’s pulling more traders into cattle than we’ve seen in months. But here’s the kicker: the cash hasn't changed. This is a futures-led rally, and that could shift quickly.

What’s driving it:

• The Cattle on Feed report showed continued tight supplies but signs of future herd expansion.

• Basis is vanishing, which signals short-term convergence—but that doesn’t mean it’s here to stay.

• Guys in the barns are shaking their heads at how high this market is—but enjoying every second.
  

Strategic takeaway: If you’re unhedged, this could be your window to lock in exceptional prices for 2026.If you’re already hedged and underwater, it's time to rethink how you'll approach the next round.Either way, this isn’t a market to sleep on.

Energy Markets: Calm Now, But a Storm’s Always One Headline Away Crude oil had a strong day—but zoom out and we’re still in a tight, sideways range.The fundamentals? Balanced. The volatility? Low. The tension? Always lurking.

What you need to know:

• Diesel, gas, and heating oil prices remain at reasonable/stable levels.

• For now, commercial hedging is quiet. But a surprise shift in weather (fall cold snap, anyone?) could change that fast.
  

Strategic takeaway: You don’t need to panic-buy fuel. But don’t get caught flat-footed if prices move.

Financials & Interest Rates: The Market’s Tuning Out the Fed Remember when interest rate speculation drove every market headline? Not this summer.

What’s happening:

• No inflation panic. No aggressive cuts or hikes on the table.

• Even Bitcoin feels quiet. Yes, there’s a micro futures contract if you’re curious.
  

The bigger picture: The interest rate environment feels “settled”—but that’s deceptive.If Powell gets replaced or sentiment shifts, commodities could catch an inflationary bid.That’s not happening yet—but keep watching energy prices for the first signs.

Strategic takeaway: Don’t hedge on hope of lower rates.Hedge on market structure. Use spreads and basis, not news headlines, as your guide.

Grains: Bearish, Boring, and Brutal This grain market feels personal. It’s not just down—it’s grinding. And it’s been doing it since February.

What’s changed:

• There’s no weather premium. None.

• Pollination problems? Twitter’s full of ‘em. But the market isn’t listening.

• Funds have been short since February—and frankly, they’ve been right.

• Basis is weak. Spreads are widening. There’s no catalyst, unless beans rally late.
  

What we do have:

• Cheap options. March $5 corn calls are going for 4.5 cents.

• Positive soybean crush margins. That’s one of the few real bright spots right now.

• No turnaround signs in spreads or national basis—yet.
  

Strategic takeaway:Don’t try to catch a falling knife. Watch for signs of a turn—spread tightening, basis improvement, strong demand. Until then, plan now for how you’ll re-own after harvest.

🎯 Final Thoughts: The Most Dangerous Market Is the One That Feels Too Quiet When everything drifts lower and nobody’s panicking, complacency creeps in. But the market doesn’t stay still forever.

Now is the time to:

• Rethink your grain marketing strategy.

• Watch spreads and basis—not headlines—for real signals.

• Explore low-cost reownership strategies with options.

• Ask: “What do I want locked in before the next move?”

🎧 New episode out now:We cover option pricing, crush margins, interest rates, grain re-ownership strategies, and why the next move won’t wait for a headline.

👉 Listen here →