Bullish on Paper. Bearish in Reality.

The Numbers Support a Rally—So Why Isn’t It Happening?

Market Breakdown: A Bullish Setup with Bearish Behavior

On paper, this market should have support:

• Corn carryout is tight. USDA is projecting 1.8B bu—with a perfect yield. That’s not generous.

• Soybean stocks are razor thin. A 295M bu carryout means there’s no room for error.

• Planting may be ahead of schedule, but conditions are average at best. Ohio is behind, and early emergence is mixed across the northern belt.

• Cattle fundamentals remain strong. Cash prices are firm, weights are stable, and supply is tight.

But none of it matters—because the market has made up its mind.

Managed money is stacked on the short side, volatility is gone, and there's no weather premium. Even with numbers that look supportive, price action is driving psychology, not the other way around.

Corn: The Most Bullish Bear Market in Years?

Look at the setup:

• A massive short position from funds

• Brazil’s second crop still in the field

• U.S. weather nearly ideal—for now

That’s a recipe for complacency. And that’s what the market is pricing: no urgency, no risk. Yet the moment the forecast flips, the whole thing could light up.

Jon notes: “We’re closer to a short-covering firestorm than anyone realizes. But you don’t want to be early—and you can’t be late.”

Soybeans & Meal: Ignored Tightness

Soy meal spreads are trading at near-20-year lows. Funds are record short. But if the trade really believed in high supplies, you’d see it in the cash markets—and you don’t.

The longer that disconnect lasts, the greater the opportunity for a fast reversal. For now, it’s all theory. The board still doesn’t care.

Cattle: A Stalled-Out Leader

Cattle has been the strongest story for months—but it may have run out of steam. A fake screwworm rumor sent futures down $7. The story was debunked. The prices didn’t recover. That’s a problem.

The cash market is still strong, but futures traders are suddenly afraid to chase. The confidence is gone—even if the fundamentals aren’t.

Final Thought: The Market Doesn’t Believe the Numbers

Until weather forces a recalculation or funds get spooked, the market is trading trend—not math. That doesn’t mean the math is wrong. It just means timing is everything.

🎧 Hear Jon and Ryan walk through the setups, the psychology, and the playbook for managing risk in a market that isn’t acting rational.

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