A Surprise Trade Deal + USDA Shock = New Bullish Momentum

Market Reversal: Why This Week Feels Different

Over the weekend, a surprise trade agreement between the U.S. and China set a bullish tone—but it was Monday's USDA report that truly flipped the grain markets. Old and new crop corn stocks dropped. Soybeans found a firm bottom. Suddenly, we’ve gone from “nothing to hedge” to “you better have a plan.”

What’s Changed?

• Corn: The report came in tighter than expected—1.8B bushels instead of the expected 2.1B. With a high yield already baked in, there’s no margin for error.

• Soybeans: Demand is steady, basis is rising, and volatility is cheap—but not for long.

• Wheat: Still dead weight. The entire world is short, and there’s no spark in sight.

Action Plan: Courage Calls & Fast Triggers

Jon breaks down how courage calls work and why they’re gaining traction. With cheap premiums and rising volatility, they’re one way to stay long without risking the farm. But they’re not for everyone—and you need to know your numbers before jumping in. Another option? Get those hedge-to-arrive orders in now, especially if you’re watching weather maps more than the market.

Cattle: Still Running

A screw worm outbreak shut the Mexican border, driving feeder cattle to new highs. But with feeders now over $300 and live cattle stalling, Jon thinks the upside risk might finally be peaking. Ryan? He took the contrarian bet: short feeders, long wheat. As always, time will tell.

Planting Progress: Fast and Furious

Corn is 62% planted (vs. 56% avg), and beans are flying at 48% (vs. 37% avg). The West is nearly done. But the dry wind across the Plains and Northern Corn Belt is raising flags. Don’t bet on drought—but don’t ignore the setup, either.

Final Take:

This is the moment. Markets rarely offer second chances, but this week just did. If you’ve been waiting to hedge—or to speculate—this might be your window. Don’t waste it.

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